Cult of Global Warming Is Losing Influence

24 Oct 2011 09:49 - 24 Oct 2011 23:08 #11 by Rockdoc

HEARTLESS wrote: We are absolutely experiencing climate change and it is in the form of global warming. But many recognize the politics of AGW and though we contribute to this warming, we aren't the cause and can not effect change in it. Whether the change is a result of astrological cycle, sun activity or some other cause is still to be proven. Some believe carbon dioxide increases follow global warming, not precede and is the cause of it. If the earth hasn't previously experienced global warming, how did ocean fossils come to Colorado? Pole shifts, tectonic plate movement alone probably can't explain it.


It really is pretty simple when you look at the science. Fact. The globe has been warming up since the last ice age. Global warming is thus real. Fact, temperature increases before atmospheric CO2 content increases. If Co2 were the engine pushing temperature, it must lead not follow. Fact: superimposed on the long term global warming trend are short term cycles (100 or so years in length .. I need to look this up). All temperature changes observed since the whole global warming listeria became a man made event, are on a short term cycle that is going to turn around and go in the opposite direction soon enough. THE AGW crowd use these measurements for predictive purposes and that is subject to considerable debate as it assumes a continuing trend. Fact, There have been a multitude of global warming and cooling events in the past (greenhouse and icehouse worlds). It all happened without our help and this one is no different. Understanding of the CO2 flux is incomplete at best and totally misunderstood at worst. 99 percent of the CO2 flux has non human origins. The volumetric difference is akin to a rain drop falling into the ocean and us expecting to see a measurable increase in sea level. It's not going to even register and neither is man's contribution of CO2. Those who wish to believe that doing something about reducing the carbon footprint are welcome to do so. At least it will make you feel good believing you make a difference. You can have that faith, but its connection to the truth is nor even close.

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24 Oct 2011 11:49 #12 by Wayne Harrison
It was global warming that helped the Vikings settle in Greenland. When they landed, it wasn't all ice. They established settlements that sustained themselves from fishing and raising animals. Global cooling happened after that window and made the shoreline no longer inhabitable.

It's cyclical.

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24 Oct 2011 14:36 #13 by ScienceChic

Rockdoc Franz wrote: It really is pretty simple when yo look at the science. Fact. The globe has been warming up since the last ice age. Global warming is thus real. Fact, temperature increases before CO2 content increases. If Co2 were the engine pushing temperature, it must lead not follow.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... p-and-co2/
The lag between temperature and CO2.

Fact: superimposed on the long term global warming trend are short term cycles (100 or so years in length .. I need to look this up). All temperature changes observed since the whole global warming listeria became a man made event, are on a short term cycle that is going to turn around and go in the opposite direction soon enough.

How is it going to turn around "soon enough" when CO2 levels, and other GHG levels, continue to rise? I mean, "soon enough" in geological time scales is fine and dandy for the planet, but not for the well-being of the trillions of species inhabiting it who are adapted to current conditions. Maybe evolution can catch up quick enough for some, but not before there are massive die-offs (as is already being seen).

THE AGW crowd use these measurements for predictive purposes and that is subject to considerable debate.

Yes, as it should be. However, multiple models, and now an independent study funded by the powerhouse of contrarians themselves, the Koch brothers, and staffed by independent researchers the leader of which was a former contrarian himself, have now confirmed that it is real and caused by us humans. Other former contrarians have changed their stances and realized that it is indeed a real problem. Just because the magnitude of predicted changes is still being debated doesn't mean that we don't have a serious problem on our hands that we need to start addressing, considering that even the most modest of predicted changes means some serious sh** coming down the pipeline.

Fact, There have been a multitude of global warming and cooling events in the past (greenhouse and icehouse worlds). It all happened without our help and this one is no different.

No has denied that it's happened in the past, and without interference from the planet's inhabitants. And no one denies that natural variation isn't occurring at this very moment as well; what is stated is that the human-forced climate change is over-riding the effects seen by natural variation due to our rapid unearthing of carbon sources of energy, clear-cutting of land for occupation, and other practices. It's impossible to look at the Keeling curve, extrapolate it with how many gigatons of carbon we remove from deep in the ground where it's been sequestered, and burn it, thus releasing it in the atmosphere and not say that we aren't influencing the climate right now with how we are living.

Understanding of the CO2 flux is incomplete at best and totally misunderstood at worst. (( percent of the CO2 flux has non human origins.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... certainty/
The certainty of uncertainty
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... ctivities/
How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-c ... ssions.htm
How do human CO2 emissions compare to natural CO2 emissions?

The volumetric difference is akin to a rain drop falling into the ocean and us expecting to see a measurable increase in sea level. It's not gong to even register and neither is man's contribution of CO2.

The total volume of CO2 seems insignificant, the problem lies in that it's effects are directly measurable and undisputed by physics, and they lead to a cascade of other GHGs increasing as well creating positive feedback loops, that cannot be compensated for by the negative feedback loops b/c we are adding CO2 at an system-overwhelming rate.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... cosub2sub/
Attribution of 20th Century climate change to CO2

Those who wish to believe that doing something about reducing the carbon footprint are welcome to do so. At least it will make you feel good believing you make a difference. You can have that faith, but its connection to the truth is nor even close.

And here you are probably totally right. By the time those with a vested interest are forced to face facts, due to public opinion finally being swayed enough to effect action, it will be too late to do anything about it. We are a short-sighted, arrogant, consuming, selfish species and we will reap what we sow.

"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

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24 Oct 2011 14:42 #14 by The Viking

Conservation Voice wrote: It was global warming that helped the Vikings settle in Greenland. When they landed, it wasn't all ice. They established settlements that sustained themselves from fishing and raising animals. Global cooling happened after that window and made the shoreline no longer inhabitable.

It's cyclical.


?????????????? Who is this?? Nice post!

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24 Oct 2011 22:59 #15 by pineinthegrass

Science Chic wrote: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... p-and-co2/
The lag between temperature and CO2.


Hey SC, I read that whole thing and my head hurts.

First of all, I get turned off when they use the word "deniers". And that article used the word right away which suggests bias to me. And let's face it, realclimate.org isn't a nonbiased site. It is heavily based on science which I'll grant you, but that site was formed by scientists who want to promote their position, not that there is anything wrong with that. Let's just be clear about it.

The way I read the linked article, the author at first said it was totally wrong to suggest that historical temperature increase and decrease followed CO2 increase and decrease.

But the more I read, it seemed the writer agreed temps changed before CO2 levels changed by hundreds of years. After that, it seems the arguement now becomes that some event happens that is not totally understood which raises temps. After that, CO2 is released (most of it from the oceans as temps increase, I guess), and that CO2 increases after temps raised causes temps to stay higher for a longer time. Or am I missing something? Why wasn't the article just clearer from the start?

I'll say this, though. We have clear science showing CO2 ppm has increased a lot in the last 55 years. Temps have increased too.



I don't think anyone seriously questions this, and that much of the CO2 increase is due to human activity. But they can say 55 years is insignificant in regards to millions of years of temperature change. And temps have been increasing in the last 20,000 years or so since the last ice age anyway.

Some argue volcanos can release that amount, but I think that's been disproven based on what's happening in current times.

I think most can agree that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and as the levels gets higher as they have been, temps will eventually follow. So I tend to believe the science. We can later get into just what it means, because both sides have politics involved, IMO.

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24 Oct 2011 23:21 #16 by Wayne Harrison

The Viking wrote:

Conservation Voice wrote: It was global warming that helped the Vikings settle in Greenland. When they landed, it wasn't all ice. They established settlements that sustained themselves from fishing and raising animals. Global cooling happened after that window and made the shoreline no longer inhabitable.

It's cyclical.


?????????????? Who is this?? Nice post!


Here's the fascinating story:

http://www.archaeology.org/online/features/greenland/

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24 Oct 2011 23:32 - 26 Oct 2011 03:36 #17 by Rockdoc
SC, The basic premise is that the continuing rise in global atmospheric and global temperature is caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere namely the release of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuel.

Problem:

Fossil fuels are richer in C12 than the atmosphere, so too is plant life on Earth, and there isn’t a lot of difference (just 2.6%) in the ratios of C13 to C12 in plants versus fossil fuels. (Fossil fuels are, after all, made in theory from plants, so it’s not surprising that it’s hard to tell their “signatures” apart). So if the C13 to C12 ratio is falling (as more C12 rich carbon is put into the air by burning fossil fuels) then we can’t know if it’s due to man-made CO2 or natural CO2 from plants.
Essentially we can measure man-made emissions reasonably well, but we can’t measure the natural emissions and sequestrations of CO2 at all precisely — the error bars are huge. Humans emits 5Gt or so per annum, but the oceans emit about 90Gt and the land-plants about 60Gt, for a total of maybe 150Gt. Many scientists have assumed that the net flows of carbon to and from natural sinks and sources of CO2 cancel each other out, but there is no real data to confirm this and it’s just a convenient assumption.

Murry Salby (from a talk he gave at the Sydney Institute)

What is controversial is that CO2 is driving global warming and that Man’s primarily responsible for this since the industrial revolution specifically, the climate models assume that most of the rise in CO2 (from 280 ppmv in1780 to 392 ppmv today) was due to industrialization and fossil fuel use.

Because CO2 can inhibit the radiation of heat based on physics, you contend that it must be responsible for or must contribute to accelerating the global rise in temperature. However the physics used by the IPCC is flawed.

In the past two decades or so, this discussion has focused on the role of water vapor as a positive feedback for the radiative forcing supposedly caused by increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. A key assumption in this argument is that the relative humidity in the atmosphere will remain constant as the atmosphere heats or cools [1, 2]. In the case of atmospheric heating, this means that the specific humidity (g water vapor/kg air) or mixing ratio (g water vapor/kg dry air) will increase as the surface/atmosphere warms. This is based on the Clausius- Clapeyron equation which defines the increase in water evaporation as surface temperature increases. This is one of the algorithms that is included in all Global Climate Models (GCM) currently in use.

Unfortunately the actual observational data contradict this core rational of AGW. While specific humidity levels in the lower troposphere do increase with increasing surface temperature, the specific humidity levels in the mid to upper troposphere have shown a decreasing trend over the past few decades even though surface temperatures (and tropospheric temperatures) are thought to be increasing.

William C. Gilbert June 12, 2011. The Thermodynamic Relationship Between Surface Temperature And Water Vapor Concentration, The Troposphere Atmospheric Physics, Basic Science

Assumptions always get you into trouble. Analysis of the assumptions underpinning AGW models exposes major problems with the derivation of principle data. Issues surrounding an evaluation of man made CO2 both from atmospheric measurements and ice cores, their model is not consistent with all the data, but only massaged parts of it. The commonly used ice core proxy is demonstrably wrong. Further, the underlying physics of AGW models is inconsistent with theoretical constraints and empirical observations. Present climate records are, in general, too short to capture the full range of natural variability. To dismiss such fundamental problems, represents shameful cherry picked science and outright fraud.

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24 Oct 2011 23:39 #18 by Rockdoc
I suppose Dr. Laughlin pretty much sums up my perspective as well.

Please remain calm: The Earth will heal itself -- Climate is beyond our power to control...Earth doesn't care about governments or their legislation. You can't find much actual global warming in present-day weather observations. Climate change is a matter of geologic time, something that the earth routinely does on its own without asking anyone's permission or explaining itself

-- Nobel Prize-Winning Stanford University Physicist Dr. Robert B. Laughlin, who won the Nobel Prize for physics in 1998, and was formerly a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

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25 Oct 2011 07:40 #19 by FredHayek

Rockdoc Franz wrote: I suppose Dr. Laughlin pretty much sums up my perspective as well.

Please remain calm: The Earth will heal itself -- Climate is beyond our power to control...Earth doesn't care about governments or their legislation. You can't find much actual global warming in present-day weather observations. Climate change is a matter of geologic time, something that the earth routinely does on its own without asking anyone's permission or explaining itself

-- Nobel Prize-Winning Stanford University Physicist Dr. Robert B. Laughlin, who won the Nobel Prize for physics in 1998, and was formerly a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.


:wink: Stop that! Climate change isn't to be denied. You aren't allowed to introduce contrary facts into the AGW gospel. Man is all powerful and can control the climate easily, they just have to want to change it. :lol:

Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.

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26 Oct 2011 03:32 #20 by Rockdoc

SS109 wrote:

Rockdoc Franz wrote: I suppose Dr. Laughlin pretty much sums up my perspective as well.

Please remain calm: The Earth will heal itself -- Climate is beyond our power to control...Earth doesn't care about governments or their legislation. You can't find much actual global warming in present-day weather observations. Climate change is a matter of geologic time, something that the earth routinely does on its own without asking anyone's permission or explaining itself

-- Nobel Prize-Winning Stanford University Physicist Dr. Robert B. Laughlin, who won the Nobel Prize for physics in 1998, and was formerly a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.


:wink: Stop that! Climate change isn't to be denied. You aren't allowed to introduce contrary facts into the AGW gospel. Man is all powerful and can control the climate easily, they just have to want to change it. :lol:


Indeed. Once man knew earth was the center of the solar system if not the universe too. lol

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