A new poll out today in Iowa. Newt 22% Romney and Paul 17%, and Perry 13% up from 5% last time these people did this poll. Perry is within 9% in the first state with over 3 weeks still to go. And he has the largest organization to get the vote out for caucuses which is much different than Primaries. The biggest ground game gets the most voters out at a caucus.
People will say yes in polls on the phone and in primaries many of them may actually go out to vote. But in caucuses, only 10% show up or less and they have to be the dedicated type with time to go in and debate and discuss. The ground game that gets the most of them excited right before it normally has the largest turn out and the votes are normally different than the polls.
What they really said during last night's republican debate:
Romney: "I don't care what you say, it's my turn!"
Newt: "I don't care what you say, I'm a better speaker than you are!"
Santorum: "I'm the only "real" Christian - bet on that!".
Perry: "I provided minimum paying jobs in Texas which proves I'm the best candidate"
Michelle: "Pleeez vote for a woman because I'm the only one on this stage with a brain"
Ron Paul: "I am really running as a Libertarian"
What they really said during last night's republican debate:
Romney: "I don't care what you say, it's my turn!"
Newt: "I don't care what you say, I'm a better speaker than you are!"
Santorum: "I'm the only "real" Christian - bet on that!".
Perry: "I provided minimum paying jobs in Texas which proves I'm the best candidate"
Michelle: "Pleeez vote for a woman because I'm the only one on this stage with a brain"
Ron Paul: "I am really running as a Libertarian"
Stolen from a very smart person's FB page.
So who is our best choice? Newt has peaked and is starting to drop slightly and has no organization in Iowa to get people out to vote. And they have proved the minimum paying jobs thing in Texas to be totally untrue. But people keep repeating it.
The Viking wrote: A new poll out today in Iowa. Newt 22% Romney and Paul 17%, and Perry 13% up from 5% last time these people did this poll. Perry is within 9% in the first state with over 3 weeks still to go. And he has the largest organization to get the vote out for caucuses which is much different than Primaries. The biggest ground game gets the most voters out at a caucus.
People will say yes in polls on the phone and in primaries many of them may actually go out to vote. But in caucuses, only 10% show up or less and they have to be the dedicated type with time to go in and debate and discuss. The ground game that gets the most of them excited right before it normally has the largest turn out and the votes are normally different than the polls.
The Viking wrote: A new poll out today in Iowa. Newt 22% Romney and Paul 17%, and Perry 13% up from 5% last time these people did this poll. Perry is within 9% in the first state with over 3 weeks still to go. And he has the largest organization to get the vote out for caucuses which is much different than Primaries. The biggest ground game gets the most voters out at a caucus.
People will say yes in polls on the phone and in primaries many of them may actually go out to vote. But in caucuses, only 10% show up or less and they have to be the dedicated type with time to go in and debate and discuss. The ground game that gets the most of them excited right before it normally has the largest turn out and the votes are normally different than the polls.
The Iowa caucus is run by political backroom guys who promise to supply enough votes to the candidate that pays them money. That is what "grass roots" organization means there. I would love to see Newt win because he is trying to not deal with these folks.
"VL" quote: And I should know because I worked on Gary Hart's Iowa campaign in the mid 80's.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
They keep saying that Dems are frothing at the mouth to get Newt and get into his background and voting record and personal baggage.
Will the religious Republicans be willing to forgive Newt his past sexual trysts, etc?
Probably, unless some new stuff comes up. Supposedly he did convert to Catholicism when he married the latest "Tiffany" wife.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
Every candidate up there lies more than Perry so I guess no one is going to win according to your logic right?
