"Climategate" scientists exonerated in every investigation

07 Jul 2010 13:48 #1 by ScienceChic
The 3rd and final report has been released today. The scientists are mostly vindicated and cleared of all allegations.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38120589/ns ... vironment/
The website of the committee in charge of reviewing the evidence and publishing the report, with a link to the full report.
http://www.cce-review.org/
Pages 11-14 are the key findings and recommendations.

In addition, Penn State's 2 separate investigations into Dr. Michael Mann was released February and last month. He too has been cleared of any wrongdoing in those investigations as well.
http://www.desmogblog.com/penn-state-co ... ccusations

Last, but not least, a Dutch review into IPCC's process also backs the majority of conclusions in the last report.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_ ... 506283.stm

Climategate in context:
http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2010/0 ... ment-80402

S&R surveyed its own members as well as Tom Wigley to estimate how many emails were sent per year by different occupations. We found that

approximately 1,500 emails per year sent by the electrical engineer
approximately 1,100 emails were sent by the home manager
between 2,500 and 3,500 emails sent by the marketing professional
about 1,500 emails were sent by the university English professor
and about 5,500 emails sent by climate scientist Wigley (with another 33,000 received emails).

If we estimate that the S&R writers surveyed each receive three emails for every email sent, then we get a yearly total of 6,000 emails, 4,400 emails, 10,000 emails, and 6,000 emails respectively for the S&R writers plu a total of about 39,000 emails per year for Wigley. Over the course of 13 years and for a 15-member workgroup (the period of the CRU emails and the size of the CRU), the total for both the electrical engineer and the English professor is 1.17 million emails, 858k emails for the home manager, a minimum of 1.95 million emails for the marketing professional, and 7.51 million emails for Wigley’s. This compares to about 1100 emails published from CRU’s servers. If we treated the emails as data, then we’d be drawing conclusions based on 0.01% (climatology) to 0.13% (home management) of the data that has also been selected using unclear criteria for unclear reasons.

All of the hysteria over initial claims of improper conduct was based on that small a dataset. The official investigation looked at ALL emails to get the 0.01-0.3% in context. And found no wrongdoing.

Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit is full of it. He complains that the investigations were whitewashed and that no input from "skeptics" such as himself were considered fully and then this evidence shows him to be a liar.
http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2010/0 ... -besieged/

McIntyre had attacked the Oxburgh panel because "Oxburgh ‘had not looked at the right papers’ and [McIntyre] came up with 5 papers they hadn’t looked at. But none of these papers were highlighted (or even mentioned) in McIntyre’s submission to Muir-Russell or the House of Commons, nor were they mentioned in Andrew Montford’s submissions.
S&R fact-checked this claim as well and compared the submissions McIntyre made to the Muir Russel review and the House of Commons inquiry to the list that McIntyre made at Climate Audit. So far as we could tell, Schmidt’s claim appears to be accurate. Schmidt guessed that the reason that these new papers were highlighted was “only because Oxburgh didn’t look at them” and called it a “clear example of moving goalposts".


The 2nd report:
http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/pre ... ements/SAP
Their conclusions:
We saw no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice in any of the work of the Climatic Research Unit
The UEA's response to the report:
http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/pre ... ts/oxburgh

The 1st report:
http://www.realclimate.org/docs/387.pdf
Science's story on it:
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsid ... tly-c.html
MSNBC's story on it:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36104206/ns ... vironment/

The scientists have been exonerated. The science they conducted has been verified. Let's move on and start pushing our representatives to implement sound policies that will reduce the effects of global warming and start making more concerted actions in our own lives to improve our planet as the experts have been saying to do for decades now.

"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

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07 Jul 2010 15:09 #2 by pineinthegrass

Science Chic wrote: The 3rd and final report has been released today. The scientists are mostly vindicated and cleared of all allegations.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38120589/ns ... vironment/
The website of the committee in charge of reviewing the evidence and publishing the report, with a link to the full report.
http://www.cce-review.org/
Pages 11-14 are the key findings and recommendations.


That report is 160 pages! Don't think I'll be reading it anytime soon...

They do, however, give a mild rebuke to the scientists in one area that concerned me. That had to do with the "hide the decline" email. Graphs were published showing tree ring temperature data. But that data showed a temperature decline beginning in the 1960s, and scientists substituted measured data instead. But they still labeled the graph as tree ring data. The report found (page 60):

In relation to "hide the decline" we find that, given its subsequent iconic
significance (not least the use of a similar figure in the TAR), the figure supplied
for the WMO Report was misleading in not describing that one of the series was
truncated post 1960 for the figure, and in not being clear on the fact that proxy and
instrumental data were spliced together. We do not find that it is misleading to
curtail reconstructions at some point per se, or to splice data, but we believe that
both of these procedures should have been made plain – ideally in the figure but
certainly clearly described in either the caption or the text.


My concern is that due to political pressure, the scientists may be presenting their data in ways that can be misleading.

Tree ring data is one of them. There was also the famous "hockey stick". Earlier IPCC reports showed a "medieval warming period" and a "little ice age". But with the hockey stick, that was all erased. And we later found that the original hockey stick was based on faulty data analysis. Even when fed random data, you'd still get a hockey stick. I know it's now been cleared up and other measurements show hockey sticks, but it still makes me wonder.

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/13830/#comment-61119

Another concern is with just how new climate science is. In the 70's there were reports in the popular press (not the scientific publications) concerned about global cooling. One of the reasons I read that scientists didn't actively dispute this back then had to do with how new the field of climate science is. And it's a concern that this new field has already discovered a future "catastrophe". And again, there is all the politics, on both sides. If we are going to spend all the time, effort, and money to fix this, I just hope the science is correct and all factors have been considered.

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07 Jul 2010 21:25 #3 by FredHayek
I know I am cynical, but if you were a scientist would you tend to be a little more favorable to your fellows to protect your community reputation? Like how police will give their fellow officers a pass so as to not besmirch the uniform.

Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.

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07 Jul 2010 22:56 #4 by Rockdoc

SS109 wrote: I know I am cynical, but if you were a scientist would you tend to be a little more favorable to your fellows to protect your community reputation? Like how police will give their fellow officers a pass so as to not besmirch the uniform.


Not if you are an honest sceintist. There are principles to uphold, namely the integrity of science, not the protection of ones reputation. I admit such a view is not always shared among scientists. I've seen far too much data forced to fit a model to suit me for a lifetime.

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07 Jul 2010 23:12 #5 by Sunshine Girl

Rockdoc Franz wrote:

SS109 wrote: I know I am cynical, but if you were a scientist would you tend to be a little more favorable to your fellows to protect your community reputation? Like how police will give their fellow officers a pass so as to not besmirch the uniform.


Not if you are an honest sceintist. There are principles to uphold, namely the integrity of science, not the protection of ones reputation. I admit such a view is not always shared among scientists. I've seen far too much data forced to fit a model to suit me for a lifetime.


That "forced data" Franz DOES go both ways, right?

" I'll try anything once, twice if I like it, three times to make sure. " Mae West

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07 Jul 2010 23:15 #6 by Sunshine Girl
SC wrote "The scientists have been exonerated. The science they conducted has been verified. Let's move on and start pushing our representatives to implement sound policies that will reduce the effects of global warming and start making more concerted actions in our own lives to improve our planet as the experts have been saying to do for decades now."


:woo hoo: I agree! Regardless if you believe or don't believe in GW, could it really hurt to make changes and try to clean up our planet?

" I'll try anything once, twice if I like it, three times to make sure. " Mae West

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08 Jul 2010 11:36 #7 by PrintSmith
Hurt how SG? I can tell you that CAFE standards killed the family station wagon which was all but exclusively served by the domestic automobile manufacturers. Did that hurt? Does a national ban on incandescent bulbs, which eliminates other products like the Easy Bake Oven from the marketplace and has introduced a product that requires an EPA approved cleanup if a CF bulb is broken, hurt or help?

In my estimation, yes, it hurts because the cures being proposed are not finding their way into the marketplace because of free market principles, they are finding their way into the marketplace because of governmental regulation - the worst possible manner in which decisions should be made.

Raising CAFE standards reduces safety and lowers the standard of living in this nation. There is already talk of raising the tax on each gallon of fuel to replace the revenue lost to the various governmental cabals as a result of the higher efficiency of the cars. So, not only do you have to pay more for the vehicle to pay for the new CAFE standards, you will likely end up paying a higher fuel tax, either because the per gallon tax was increased or they begin taxing total miles driven instead of total fuel consumed, on top of the additional amount to purchase the vehicle. Does that hurt the average family or help them in their quest to shelter, feed and clothe the family?

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08 Jul 2010 13:00 #8 by LadyJazzer
If the money that is needed goes to keep the bridges & highways safe so that the average family can drive without fear of falling into a river or ravine, does it help or hurt? You seem to think that the money from combined-fuel taxes evaporates...(or possibly goes into no-bid contracts to fuel unnecessary wars, perhaps?) These "various governmental cabals" are entities like the State, which have to find a way to continue to keep the infrastructure from falling apart in the absence of the reduced revenue because of the recession's effect on the number of people employed, and the fewer miles being driven because of people changing their driving habits.

But then, of course, "All taxes = bad". You are so blinded by your hatred of all government that you can't even see when it's helping you instead of hurting you.

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08 Jul 2010 15:53 #9 by BaconLover

SS109 wrote: I know I am cynical, but if you were a scientist would you tend to be a little more favorable to your fellows to protect your community reputation? Like how police will give their fellow officers a pass so as to not besmirch the uniform.


I thought they gave passes to other cops so that when it came around to them getting caught breaking the law they would be let go....

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