Who Will Win In Iowa & Will It Matter?

I don't think it will matter much, especially if a social conservative wins in Iowa like Bachmann or Santorum, but if either have a poor showing, they will probably suspend their campaigns.

New Hampshire & South Carolina will be much more important, just ask McCain.

I personally don't think it matters. But I get a giggle out of the media. They've made such a huge deal out of the whole thing, and now that Paul is pulling some numbers and actually has a chance of winning they're backpedaling the importance as furiously as they can! ROTFLAMO!!!!!

As Iowa Goes, So Goes Iowa

For all of the media hoopla, GOP caucusgoers in the Hawkeye State have a poor record of choosing their party's eventual nominee.

I don't have anything against Iowa's Republican caucusgoers. They're nice people, good Americans, conscientious and aware of their responsibilities as voters in the state's first-in-the-nation presidential primary. (Iowa Democratic caucusgoers are like this too.)

But the Iowa Republican caucuses have a poor record in choosing their party's nominees. In the five presidential nominating cycles with active Iowa Republican caucus competition, the Hawkeye State has voted for the eventual Republican nominee only twice—in 1996 for Bob Dole, in 2000 for George W. Bush—and only once was the Iowa winner elected president.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 07304.html

Que Sera Sera.

If Romney wins in Iowa, I predict a short primary season, just what the GOP needs. Romney can start on major fundraising, and the party can close ranks.

But the number of people who actually participate in the Iowa caucuses is too small to be a good sample of a national race.

I wonder. From what I've been reading it sounds as if many Romney supporters are half-hearted at best - holding their noses while choosing who they think is most likely to be able to beat Obama, but not particularly liking or supporting him.

As you say, the numbers in the caucus are too small to be a good sample, but I wonder if Romney can win the nomination. Having said that, Romney does seem to be the most likely of all of them.

There is part of a movement in Iowa to make a decision that will make the state relevant again.
If Romney does win the caucus, and then wins the Presidency then Iowa maintains their importance. If they choose another Huckabee who doesn't get over 15% anywhere else, then they will be seen as not worth the attention.

Agreed. No matter what, it'll be interesting to watch. NH will be interesting too!

I'm guessing Santorum has the momentum at the moment... And no, it will not matter. Because a right-wing "Christian conservative" who is as far out as he is will NEVER be elected by the general population. Theocracy sucks.

Will there be any surprises on the Dem ballot, like 20% write-ins for Hillary?

Or will those Dems with nothing to do declare themselves as Republicans and vote for Ron Paul? Or Rick "Don't Google Me" Santorum?

The tea party has failed, Romney will get the nomination.