CBO Budget Outlook 2012-2022 - Real Unemployment Rate Is 10%

Here are the highlights...

2012 Deficit: $1.1 trillion; 2013 Deficit: $0.6

Unemployment to remain above 8% in 2012 and 2013; will be around 7% by end of 2015; to drop to 5.25% by end of 2022.

(This forecast is utterly idiotic and is completely unattainable unless the US workforce drops to all time lows and the US economy generates 300,000 jobs a month for 10 years)

But here is the kicker: "Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent"[/i] (translation: CBO just admitted that the BLS numbers are bogus and real unemployment is 10%.)

Full report and commentary can be found here...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/latest-co ... 2-released

I will call CBO's "real" unemployment rate of 10% and raise it to 15%. That's pure unemployment. Throw in underemployment, with this groups ranks swelled tremendously by those formerly working for a company, but now considered "self-employed,"which would include people who want to work full time, but who are now only working 15 or 20ish hours a week, and I'd be surprised if U6 was NOT an honest 21%.

Unemployment is going down, but will it be enough to give Barack four more years.

And since the economy is in bad shape with savings destroyed and people earning nothing on interest, more seniors are choosing to stay in the job hunt. This will keep unemployment high, especially for teens with no experience.

FredHayek wrote: Unemployment is going down, but will it be enough to give Barack four more years.

And since the economy is in bad shape with savings destroyed and people earning nothing on interest, more seniors are choosing to stay in the job hunt. This will keep unemployment high, especially for teens with no experience.

Unemployment is not down. Did you even read the report. It's higher than the administration is stating. You make the stereotype of the uneducated conservative really hard to dismiss.

If you change how the unemployment numbers are used for the current year then you have to go back to all the previous years also and adjust those numbers using the new parameters. Otherwise the new numbers are meaningless, _

archer wrote: If you change how the unemployment numbers are used for the current year then you have to go back to all the previous years also and adjust those numbers using the new parameters. Otherwise the new numbers are meaningless, _

Tell that to the CBO... they made the adjustments...

But here is the kicker: "Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent" (translation: CBO just admitted that the BLS numbers are bogus and real unemployment is 10%.)

Doesn't change the truth of the matter no matter what.

Well, it is trending down, or is that just more people giving up on looking, hence the real unemployment numbers.

FredHayek wrote: Well, it is trending down, or is that just more people giving up on looking, hence the real unemployment numbers.

Never mind... I have no idea what the hell you're talking about or trying to say.