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http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pol ... vs-barrett
In Wisconsin, Walker Is Likely to Survive Recall
Mr. Walker leads his Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, by an average of six percentage points in those polls and has not trailed in any poll since February.
Some polls issued by Democratic-affiliated groups have shown a somewhat tighter race, with Mr. Barrett trailing by about three percentage points instead. Partisan-affiliated polls have a long track record of somewhat exaggerating their candidate’s standing, however, and it may be telling that even these polls do not show Mr. Barrett ahead.
In a typical November election, a 6-point lead with two weeks to go would translate into a high probability of winning — roughly on the order of 90 percent, based on the historical accuracy of polls of governors’ races.
The dynamics of a recall election may be slightly more uncertain. But with high turnout expected, which tends to make polling more reliable, Mr. Barrett would most likely need a last-minute change in momentum to have much of a chance of prevailing. [/b][/i]
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... ve-recall/
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The Liberals GOP Twin wrote: :woo hoo: :woo hoo: :woo hoo: :woo hoo: :woo hoo: :woo hoo: :woo hoo: :woo hoo: :woo hoo: :woo hoo:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pol ... vs-barrett
Nate Silver is about ready to make a call.
In Wisconsin, Walker Is Likely to Survive Recall
Mr. Walker leads his Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, by an average of six percentage points in those polls and has not trailed in any poll since February.
Some polls issued by Democratic-affiliated groups have shown a somewhat tighter race, with Mr. Barrett trailing by about three percentage points instead. Partisan-affiliated polls have a long track record of somewhat exaggerating their candidate’s standing, however, and it may be telling that even these polls do not show Mr. Barrett ahead.
In a typical November election, a 6-point lead with two weeks to go would translate into a high probability of winning — roughly on the order of 90 percent, based on the historical accuracy of polls of governors’ races.
The dynamics of a recall election may be slightly more uncertain. But with high turnout expected, which tends to make polling more reliable, Mr. Barrett would most likely need a last-minute change in momentum to have much of a chance of prevailing. [/b][/i]
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... ve-recall/
Time for the Democrats to call in the dead voters!!!
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/0 ... 35784.htmlThe "John Doe" investigation has already resulted in charges against six of Walker's top aides. The probe by the Milwaukee County district attorney’s office is reportedly focusing on whether staffers who worked for Walker did political work with taxpayer money.
Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Mike Tate responded by saying that Walker is the first governor to ever need a criminal defense fund.
"He has bent and broken the rules that should govern the conduct of an executive," Tate said in a statement. "Every citizen, regardless of party, agrees that our government should be free of corruption. It looks very much like Scott Walker has not given Wisconsin this honor."
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LadyJazzer wrote: I can hardly wait until he has to answer the question in the debates about which one of the out-of-state millionaires is funding his legal-defense fund. (Since he's the only governor who has one, and he's under investigation for embezzlement and illegal fund-raising...)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/0 ... 35784.htmlThe "John Doe" investigation has already resulted in charges against six of Walker's top aides. The probe by the Milwaukee County district attorney’s office is reportedly focusing on whether staffers who worked for Walker did political work with taxpayer money.
Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Mike Tate responded by saying that Walker is the first governor to ever need a criminal defense fund.
"He has bent and broken the rules that should govern the conduct of an executive," Tate said in a statement. "Every citizen, regardless of party, agrees that our government should be free of corruption. It looks very much like Scott Walker has not given Wisconsin this honor."
Should be fun...
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MILWAUKEE (Reuters) - Democratic governors pledged $1 million on Thursday to pay for Wisconsin television advertisements in a final push to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker, who has a small but consistent lead in polls before the June 5 vote.
Walker faces a special election after he angered Democrats and labor unions by pushing through the state legislature a law that strips public sector labor unions of much of their power.
Walker critics gathered nearly a million signatures to force the vote, and Democrats picked Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett to run against him in the recall vote.
But every public poll released since Barrett was chosen on May 8 has shown Walker in the lead, with the margin ranging from 4 to 12 points. Polls also show an extraordinarily small number of undecided voters. [/b][/i]
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/poli ... 6257.story
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