Economic News Weakens Obama’s Reelection Odds

Another dose of sickly economic news weakens Obama’s reelection odds

By James Pethokoukis
May 31, 2012, 9:31 am



Today we had a warm-up for tomorrow’s big jobs report. And the economic news hasn’t been so good:

– 1Q GDP was revised down to 1.9% from 2.2%. The previous four GDP quarters of Obama recovery: 0.4%, 1.3%, 1.8%, 3.0%. Keep in mind that research from the Federal Reserve finds that that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 48 percent of the time. (And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 70 percent of the time.)

– Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000. Claims have now risen in seven of the past eight weeks. The four-week moving average for new claims increased 3,750 to 374,500.

http://blog.american.com/2012/05/another-dose-of-sickly-economic-news-weakens-obamas-reelection-odds/

Maybe it will hurt his chances to get re-elected but I think it could also get him more voters. Debt is an issue but people might prefer the siren call of more stimulus compared to austerity that Romney is promising. Worked for FDR. He milked the Great Depression for three terms. Maybe Romney needs to just promise more to revitalize the economy like checks for $1000 per household.