On what alternate universe will Democrats enjoy a D +19 turnout advantage over Republicans on election day? Well, that would be Planet Pew:
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.
Except….
Sample Size:
459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independents
In the best election season Democrats have enjoyed since Nixon resigned, 2008, the Democrat advantage was only D+8, but Pew is now attempting to hustle us into believing the turnout this year is going to be D +19.
I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.
"Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the Government take care of him; better take a closer look at the American Indian." - Henry Ford
Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges; When the Republic is at its most corrupt the laws are most numerous. - Publius Cornelius Tacitus
Are they going to get more in line when the election gets closer? It would be quite embarrasing to have your polls be off by 10%. I don't think your customers would hire you for the next election.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
Aug. 2: When a Poll That Seems Like News Isn’t
By NATE SILVER, New York Times
On Thursday around 4 p.m., my Twitter feed lighted up with people either promoting or critiquing a new national poll from Pew Research that gave President Obama a lead of 10 percentage points, 51 percent to 41 percent, over Mitt Romney.
It’s an impressive number for Mr. Obama on the surface — but when taken in context, the poll doesn’t tell us anything all that different about the presidential race.
