Their EC Map is showing 237 Obama, 181 Romney and 120 Toss Up. If their current numbers hold true on election day in the Toss Up States, Obama takes the election 271 to 267. That would make it the second closest presidential election of all time, eclipsing the 5 EC vote margin in the Bush/Gore contest of 2000 (decided by 5 EC votes) with only the 1876 contest between Hayes and Tilden, which was decided by 1 vote, being the only election with a smaller margin.
I still don't think these polls are accurate- they are weighted in favor of Democrats, we had a thread on that last week.
But...
Consider this new poll in the first post here-
These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about one-third of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. The single night of polling conducted after the debate did show some improvement for Romney, but it remains to be seen whether that will continue or if it was merely statistical noise. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.
Only one night after the debate appears in their numbers so far- we have to wait until Sunday to get the total "effect" of the debate they say.
I should think, by your own logic, you would have to wait until three days after the THIRD debate to understand any "total effect" there may have been. Of course, since you guys are still so far behind in the battleground states across the board, and the Electoral College projections still show Obama with enough votes to win it, you would be anxious to glom onto any "good news" you can--even if it's only temporary....
BearMtnHIB wrote: I still don't think these polls are accurate- they are weighted in favor of Democrats, we had a thread on that last week.
The only problem with this line of thinking is that Rasmussen was the only outfit weighting their polls using historical data instead of using data from only the 2008 contest, thus the potential flaws in the polls that was discussed are not applicable to our discussion here.
