Romney bouncing?

I know there are several here that follow the polls more than me, and I think the battleground states are the most important polls in a close race. But it looks like Romey jumped up a lot in the national Pew poll (and others) after the debate.

Mitt Romney’s commanding performance on the debate stage last week has generated a significant bounce for his presidential candidacy, according to national polls released Monday.

The Republican nominee opened up a 4-point lead over President Obama, 49% to 45% among likely voters, in the latest national opinion survey by the independent Pew Research Center. In mid-September, Obama led by 8 points, 51% to 43%, in a survey by Pew, which has tended to show the president with a bigger advantage over Romney than have other major national polls.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-bounce-presidential-debate-poll-20121008,0,1052993.story

It pretty much parallels Kerry's bounce after the first debate against Bush. So will this be a rise in momentum or merely a high water mark.

Wouldn't surprise me. I would guess a lot of people aren't looking for political persuasion, but rather leadership in a candidate. At this debate, Romney showed he had exactly that, and Obama showed he (at least at this debate) had virtually none.

I'm real curious to see how the next debate works out. I suspect Obama will come out a lot stronger, if he can. I think sitting in the oval office for 3.5 yrs without anyone challenging him has made him rusty about answering any tough questions. Romney on the other hand has been attacked by the press and other republicans. He has plenty of war experience in that realm.

The poll, conducted by Pew Research Center from Thursday through Sunday and released on Monday, shows Romney leading Obama among likely voters nationwide, 49 percent to 45 percent

http://news.yahoo.com/pew-romney-leads- ... itics.html

In another blow to the Obama campaign, whose central message has been to move the country forward and away from the old policies put forth by Republicans, voters identify Romney as the candidate with new ideas, 47 percent to 40 percent. Moreover, Romney's favorability rating spiked 5 points to 50 percent in Monday's poll. Obama's favorability rating, long his most resilient attribute as a candidate, fell from 55 percent last month to 49 percent.

Obama has a four year record of accomplishments as bare as his college transcripts. His campaign isn't even running on ACA. Maybe polling reveals the independents don't care about it.

I think people have heard about Romney, but the debate was really the first time most got to "meet" Romney. Perhaps he came across better than he's been portrayed. I doubt the spike in the polls will last, but its at least a horse race now. Come on advertising dollars!

The best news? Romney is tied with Obama for the women's vote, a demographic Obama once enjoyed an 18 point advantage in.

How's that "War on Women" meme working out for the "progressives"? Evidently, not very well . . . . . .

War On Women? Yep, wives and mothers realized they care more about record high gas prices, household income falling by an average of $10,000, and 7.8% unemployment more than they care about mandating that health insurance companies provide free birth control that only costs you $9 a month at Wal-Mart.

Obama, after ACA, he checked out. Maybe he is the one who doesn't care about 99% of Americans?

I find it interesting that the very same posters who were complaining about the "skew" against Romney in the polls now jump onboard those very same polls. If you happen to review the crosstabs on the Pew poll you would find that their sampling was "skewed" in favor of Republicans.
For example, their view of "likely voters" had a 3% greater for Republicans than Democrats. For perspective, 2010 the turnout was even at 36%, even though the Republicans were supposedly fired up.

The Pew sampling had the following demographics for likely voters:
68% were over 50 years old.

Only 30% of the poll was 18-49 year olds, and they were 57% of the vote in 2008

Only 12% of voters polled were non white and no latino's in pew poll.
Most "experts" believe the non white vote will be 28%.
Hispanics were 9% of the electorate in 2008.

78% white in the Pew Poll while 74% white in 2008 and 77% in 2004
The Pew sampling by region was doubled in the South as compared to the other regions.
Northeast 201
Midwest 271
South 417
West 223


So the Pew poll disproportionately sampled older southern white voters as compared with other demographics, particularly hispanics and non southern voters.


My take on the recent polls is that Romney made up ground, but President Obama has a slight lead. Whether this is a highwater mark or a rising tide will remain to be seen.

Must be all that "democrat over-sampling"...