CU Election Prediction

Supposedly these experts are right 70% of the time and they are predicting Romney will win the popular vote but Obama will win the electoral vote. In so many Red states, it isn't even close, like 60/40 Texas, and even worse in states like North Dakota. But Obama has all the high electoral college states locked up like Illinois, California and New York that Romney has to pretty much win all the battleground states to hit 270.
I can see this scenario happening. (Revenge for Gore/Bush?)

We showed this to everyone we canvassed in the Aurora Latino community amongst other things. It was a great motivator for all of us to get out there and garner support, one vote at a time.

http://kwgn.com/2012/08/22/cu-election- ... omney-win/ 8-22-12

DENVER – A University of Colorado analysis of election factors that’s accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980 revealed Wednesday that the 2012 winner will be Republican Mitt Romney.

Thanks to many on this website who posted info that provided great talking points besides what we already had.

CU prof who projected Romney landslide issues mea culpa

ack in August, University of Colorado political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry won national attention for projecting an Electoral College romp for Mitt Romney based on a model relying heavily on state-level economic factors such as unemployment data and changes in personal income.

The academics later updated their estimates based on new data and gave the Republican an even bigger edge – 330 Electoral College votes to Obama’s 208. Bickers appeared on FOX’s “The O’Reilly Factor” and conservative talk radio.

On Wednesday — after the professors incorrectly forecast that Romney would sweep the battleground states that ended up carrying Obama to an easy victory — it was time for a reckoning.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/201 ... lpa/86219/

After switching over to FiveThirtyEight/Nate Silver's polls & projections, (and finding him to be dead-on, 51 for 51) it's fun to go back and look at how many missed. I still love the graph that shows Rasmussen tied with Gallup for 24th place...

Polls are just a snapshot in time and so are elections

FredHayek wrote: Polls are just a snapshot in time and so are elections

Sux to be you, don't it....

FredHayek wrote: Rasmussen: Five days of Mitt polling at 50%. The spike is firming up.

FredHayek wrote: Rasmussen MO. Poll McCaskill 48, Akins, 38.

Oh, sorry... You were the guy that doesn't put any interest in polls...

If the election had been a few weeks earlier Carter would have got that second term.