FiveThirtyEight: Nov 6, 2012

So here's tonight's update---the last before the election:

FiveThirtyEight: Nov 6, 2012

Electoral Votes: Obama: 314.4 / RMoney: 223.6

Chance of Winning: Obama: 91.4% / RMoney: 8.6%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.9% / RMoney 48.2%

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COLORADO:

Polling Avg: Obama: 48.6% / RMoney: 46.7.%

Already Cast: Obama: 49.1% / RMoney: 46.4%

Chance of Winning: Obama: 80% / RMoney: 20% (Yesterday it was 70%/30%)

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OHIO:

Polling Avg: Obama: 49.0% / RMoney: 46.0.%

Already Cast: Obama: 49.5% / RMoney: 45.7%

Chance of Winning: Obama: 91% / RMoney: 9%

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PENNSYLVANIA:

Polling Avg: Obama: 49.7% / RMoney: 45.0.%

Already Cast: Obama: 50.6% / RMoney: 44.5%

Chance of Winning: Obama: 99% / RMoney: 1%

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WISCONSIN:

Chance of Winning: Obama: 97% / RMoney: 3%


MINNESOTA:

Chance of Winning: Obama: 100% / RMoney: 0%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


Well, y'all just keep up that happy face...

Oh...And by all means, ignore this one and go with the Rasmussen poll...

Just curious. Their projections that you've posted have been over 300 for Obama. So why did you only vote 277 for Obama in the 285bound contest?

pineinthegrass wrote: Just curious. Their projections that you've posted have been over 300 for Obama. So why did you only vote 277 for Obama in the 285bound contest?

Because FiveThirtyEight appears to have more accurate compilations of all the polls, and better data. I was unaware of it before, so I was using the HuffPo numbers...I still believe the HuffPo numbers were arrived at in a non-partisan way...But the FiveThirtyEight information appears to be more current, and I trust them more.

I think 300+ might be stretching a bit... And I think the 277 number is more likely... So, I decided to hedge my bet. Anything over 270 is fine by me, and whether I win the contest or not is irrelevant to me...Just as long as I get to watch Mitt-flop go down in flames.

So if the Huffpo is completely off, will you stop trusting their numbers in the future?