So who won the battle of the pollsters? Besides Nate Silver now being the king of prognosticators, the following polls were deemed the most accurate:
From Fordham University's Costas Panagopoulos, director of the university's Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy.
"For all the ridicule directed towards pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide vote shares for the two candidates," said Dr. Panagopoulos.
On average, pre-election polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 0.63 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 1.7-point Obama margin in the national popular vote. [...]
1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK
"Remember to always be yourself. Unless you can be batman. Then always be batman." Unknown
I noticed that the FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver) polls were virtually 100% dead-on... That's why I switched over to his numbers a couple of weeks ago.
And that's whose polls I'll be watching in the future....
(Interesting list: Gallup & Rasmussen tied for 24th place in accuracy...) I guess telling you what you want to hear doesn't necessarily equate with telling you what the facts are.
Yep, too many conservatives chose to believe in anecdotal when the numbers didn't show up the way they wanted. Why would pollsters want to be inaccurate? Not likely to be hired for the next job.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
FredHayek wrote: Yep, too many conservatives chose to believe in anecdotal when the numbers didn't show up the way they wanted. Why would pollsters want to be inaccurate? Not likely to be hired for the next job.
Yeah, and I can PROMISE you that in two years you guys will be posting numbers from Rasmussen and telling us that they can't be wrong....