Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on gl

M. Beenstock1, Y. Reingewertz1, and N. Paldor2
1Department of Economics, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem, Israel
2Fredy and Nadine Institute of Earth Sciences, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel

Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.


http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net ... -2012.html

What is your point?
Can you pronounce every word, much less define them?
I submit these:

anthropogenic
polynomia
stationary in 2nd differences
anthropogenic forcings
common stochastic trend
polynomially cointegrated.

I am thinking a community forum is not your venue, but if you care to educate me I am game. Lets start with definitions then we can go to discussions.

Hoot Owl wrote: What is your point?
Can you pronounce every word, much less define them?
I submit these:

anthropogenic
polynomia
stationary in 2nd differences
anthropogenic forcings
common stochastic trend
polynomially cointegrated.

I am thinking a community forum is not your venue, but if you care to educate me I am game. Lets start with definitions then we can go to discussions.

It was a contest. You win.

Hoot Owl wrote: What is your point?
Can you pronounce every word, much less define them?
I submit these:

anthropogenic
polynomia
stationary in 2nd differences
anthropogenic forcings
common stochastic trend
polynomially cointegrated

Definition of ANTHROPOGENIC
: of, relating to, or resulting from the influence of human beings on nature <anthropogenic pollutants>

Definition of POLYNOMIAL (I'm making the bold assumption that's what Bob meant)
: a mathematical expression of one or more algebraic terms each of which consists of a constant multiplied by one or more variables raised to a nonnegative integral power (as a + bx + cx2)

My best guess Definition of the phrase stationary in 2nd differences
: In mathematics, a stationary process (or strict(ly) stationary process or strong(ly) stationary process) is a stochastic process whose joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time or space. Consequently, parameters such as the mean and variance, if they exist, also do not change over time or position.

My best guess Definition of the phrase anthropogenic forcings
: Human caused changes to nature/the environment.

My best guess Definition of the phrase common stochastic trend
: Stochastic (from the Greek στόχος for aim or guess) is an adjective that refers to systems whose behavior is intrinsically non-deterministic, sporadic, and categorically not intermittent (i.e. random).

My best guess Definition of the phrase polynomially cointegrated
: In mathematics, a polynomial is an expression of finite length constructed from variables (also called indeterminates) and constants, using only the operations of addition, subtraction, multiplication, and non-negative integer exponents. However, the division by a constant is allowed, because the multiplicative inverse of a non zero constant is also a constant. For example, x2 − x/4 + 7 is a polynomial, but x2 − 4/x + 7x3/2 is not, because its second term involves division by the variable x (4/x), and also because its third term contains an exponent that is not a non-negative integer (3/2). The term "polynomial" can also be used as an adjective, for quantities that can be expressed as a polynomial of some parameter, as in polynomial time, which is used in computational complexity theory.

Cointegrated is simply the combination of two or more values.

In Redneck terms: Man made global warming/climate change - whatever you want to call it - is BS!