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The GOP’s Intellectual Dishonesty Regarding Bush Tax Cuts
Republicans say that tax cuts for the wealthy must be extended to protect the economy and small businesses, even though neither would be affected by their lapse.
Over at Ezra Klein’s blog, Dylan Matthews recently polled an ideologically diverse group of economists on what tax rate they think would begin to reduce, rather than increase, tax revenue. The answers generally ranged from around 60 to 80 percent. There was a broad consensus that it does not kick in at the level of taxes we would revert to, which top out at less than 40 percent. (Matthews also asked some members of the Republican congressional leadership, but none responded.)
This punctures a hole in the Republican claim that it is OK to cut taxes without offsetting spending cuts because the increased economic growth will in turn increase tax revenue. To be fair, conservatives worry not only that high tax rates will decrease government revenue, but also that it will slow economic growth. As several conservative economists pointed out to Matthews, the tax rate that maximizes government revenue may be higher than the rate that maximizes economic growth. Thus, if you raise taxes too high, you may increase revenue now but decrease it over the long term.
The argument that because of this principle the two highest marginal rates should not be allowed to revert from 33 percent to 35 percent, and from 36 to 39.6 percent, respectively, has little relation to macroeconomic reality. The economy performed better under those slightly higher Clinton-era rates than during the Bush era.
Even in the abstract, the claim that increasing by a few percentage points a few rich citizens’ tax rate will harm economic growth is implausible. Outside of yacht manufacturers, Bentley dealers, and real-estate agents on Martha’s Vineyard, not many workers depend on the slight variations in disposable income of the very wealthy for their livelihood.
But wait, what if owners of small businesses reported their income as individuals? Then wouldn’t raising their taxes decrease their desire to expand their business at this precarious juncture in our economic recovery? Perhaps, and that is precisely the argument Republicans have glommed onto. But as The New York Times reports, “Analyses from the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research organization, show that less than 3 percent of filers with small-business income pay at the top two income tax rates, and many of those are doctors and lawyers in partnerships.” So, when presented with this objective fact that the factual basis for their arguments are hogwash, presumably Republicans will retract their demand for extending the Bush tax cuts on top earners, right?
Don’t count on it. But doctors and lawyers do buy cars and houses. So if Republicans get their way, maybe at least some Bentley dealers and real-estate agents will be happy.
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Nmysys wrote: CHANGE? YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT
On January 1, 2011, here’s what happens... (read it to the end, so you see all three waves)...
First Wave:
Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors, small business owners, and families.
These will all expire on January 1, 2011.
Personal income tax rates will rise.
The top income tax rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which two-thirds of small business profits are taxed).
The lowest rate will rise from 10 to 15 percent.
All the rates in between will also rise.
Itemized deductions and personal exemptions will again phase out, which has the same mathematical effect as higher marginal tax rates.
The full list of marginal rate hikes is below:
• The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
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• The 25% bracket rises to 28%
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• The 28% bracket rises to 31%
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• The 33% bracket rises to 36%
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• The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%
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