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(You want to read the emails Dr. Petersen sent to Mr. Anthony Watts. Epic.)This week the online journal Science Express published a paper by Karl et al. that corrected a few biases in the global temperature record. Most of these corrections were to the sea surface temperature record, data collected by ships and buoys. The upshot was that any evidence for a so-called "hiatus" or "pause" in global warming during recent years vanished in the statistical haze.
And climate denier heads exploded all over the internet .
(Those who have studied the statistics always knew that the apparent slowdown was not statistically significant in the first place. In other words, it was never there to begin with.)
During this firestorm, primo denialati Anthony Watts had an email exchange with Dr. Tom Peterson, one of the co-authors of the hated Karl et al. paper. Follow below the fold for the quick coup de grace.
Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.
- See more at: www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2...sthash.3LtvqBgx.dpufIn a new paper in Science Express, Karl et al. describe the impacts of two significant updates to the NOAA NCEI (née NCDC) global temperature series. The two updates are: 1) the adoption of ERSST v4 for the ocean temperatures (incorporating a number of corrections for biases for different methods), and 2) the use of the larger International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) weather station database, instead of GHCN. This kind of update happens all the time as datasets expand through data-recovery efforts and increasing digitization, and as biases in the raw measurements are better understood. However, this update is going to be bigger news than normal because of the claim that the ‘hiatus’ is no more. To understand why this is perhaps less dramatic than it might seem, it’s worth stepping back to see a little context…
The ‘hiatus’ is so fragile that even those small changes make it disappear
The ‘selling point’ of the paper is that with the updates to data and corrections, the trend over the recent decade or so is now significantly positive. This is true, but in many ways irrelevant.
The contrary-sphere really doesn’t like it when talking points are challenged
The harrumphing from the usual quarters has already started. The Cato Institute sent out a pre-rebuttal even before the paper was published, replete with a litany of poorly argued points and illogical non-sequiturs. From the more excitable elements, one can expect a chorus of claims that raw data is being inappropriately manipulated. The fact that the corrections for non-climatic effects reduce the trend will not be mentioned. Nor will there be any actual alternative analysis demonstrating that alternative methods to dealing with known and accepted biases give a substantially different answer (because they don’t).
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So let me see if I have this correctly, when data that contradicts what you are looking for is ignored, then you can find what you are looking for. Does that about sum up the findings in the Karl report that you are referring to SC? Since Karl didn't like the data he's free to change it to something that he does like to suit his purposes of "progressive scientific process"?The satellite data is compiled by two separate sets of researchers, whose results match each other closely. One team that compiles the data includes Climate Professors John Christy and Roy Spencer at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, both of whom question Karl’s adjusted data.
“The study is one more example that you can get any answer you want when the thermometer data errors are larger than the global warming signal you are looking for,” Spencer told FoxNews.com.
“We believe the satellite measurements since 1979 provide a more robust measure of global temperatures, and both satellite research groups see virtually the same pause in global temperatures for the last 18 years,” he said.
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PrintSmith wrote: You would have us believe that a more comprehensive data set is the one with the bias Dog? That defies common sense, doesn't it? Wouldn't the less robust data set be the one more likely to be hiding a bias within its numbers than a more comprehensive set of data is? That's just logical reasoning, the kind which Dr. Karl eschewed in pursuit of his predetermined destination. A more comprehensive data set is going to illuminate an existing bias, which is exactly what it has accomplished and why respected climate scientists like Professor Judith Curry at Georgia Tech and Climate Professors John Christy and Roy Spencer at the University of Alabama take issue with Dr. Karl's "adjustments" to the data to arrive at his chosen destination.
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