Political polling data expert Nate Silver has said he thinks Donald Trump is more likely to win the election than Kamala Harris, but he also tells CNBC that the momentum for Trump picked up by pollsters is questionable.
Silver, who is also a professional poker player and consultant to a prediction market, says even with his Trump call it’s not a great bet for gamblers like it was in 2016 when a winning Trump wager would have paid off big.
Trump has always outperformed the polls. 2016 was a surprise because that was his first time running. Gamblers in 2016 didn't have the information about flawed polling that they do now.
