The likelihood that the US economy will slip into a recession is rising on Wall Street, with some economists even seeing 50-50 odds.
JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman told reporters in Singapore on Wednesday that he now sees a roughly 40% recession risk, up from about 30% at the start of the year.
But he added that recession odds would rise to 50% or above if President Donald Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs, which are due to take effect April 2, meaningfully come in to force.
“If we would continue down this road of what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks on that recession front would go up,” Kasman said.
Meanwhile, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the chances of a recession are about 50%, citing Trump’s tariffs, immigration crackdown, and mass federal layoffs, which are combining to cause sharp reductions in consumer and business spending plans.
When economic forecasts start being revised in a certain direction, there tends to be momentum, he told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. And all the revisions are going toward less growth.
When the US gets a cold, the world goes onto its death bed.
Our economy is much more diverse and resilient than the other nations of the world. China, Canada, and Europe are all acting tough now but Musk is cutting funding to them. And they all have major debt issues.
The scary thing? Some nations might try to cover up their economic problems by going to war. China invading Taiwan?
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
Homeagain likes to talk about what her sources think will happen, but never wants to talk about what actually happened. I wish I had a master list of all the “wait for it” predictions that evaporated in the wind.
A fact is information without emotion.
An opinion is information shaped by experience.
Ignorance is an opinion without knowledge.
Stupidity is an opinion that rejects facts.
Seems not everyone at JPM/Chase is on that same page . . .
However, the JPMorgan analysts' review suggested that the correction may have been caused mainly by quantitative hedge funds that use algorithmic strategies to adjust positions, rather than concerns about a recession.
"The recent U.S. equity market correction appears to be more driven by equity quant fund position adjustments and less driven by fundamental or discretionary managers reassessing U.S. recession risks," they wrote.
The report noted that credit markets are sending a less recessionary signal than equities and a bond benchmark.
As of March 11, the S&P 500 Index suggested a 33% implied probability of recession, while the 5-year Treasury implied a 46% chance, base metals 45% and the Russell 2000 Index a 52% chance. By contrast, U.S. high-grade credit markets implied a 12% recession chance and U.S. high-yield credit just a 9% probability.
"And if U.S. equity ETFs continue to see mostly inflows as they have thus far, there is a good chance that most of the current U.S. equity market correction is behind us," they added.
Synopsis
Is Elon Musk planning to step down for the post of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) chief? The Department of Government Efficiency was created earlier this year to reduce the federal workforce and weed out what President Donald Trump and Musk see as a waste of taxpayer funds. Musk has revealed the date when he plans to quit DOGE. OH, BREAK THINGS AND THEN WAVE BYE BYE....FALL OUT FASTFORWARD...NOPE, NOT GOING TO BE AROUND
Read more at:
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/intern...t&utm_campaign=cppst
kinda like saying is daughter is dead (trans).....what a work of excrement.....
FredHayek wrote: That is what successful leaders do. You show how to do things, appoint the right people to carry out your vision, and then move on to other pursuits.
The world would be a lot different if Musk had just decided to get comfy in the PayPal boardroom and coast.
I'M SORRY US R SPEAKING TO SOMEONE WITH 18 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE WITH ATT....CARRY OUT YOUR VISION SUCCESSFULLY....THAT WAS NOT DONE...IT IS HALF ASSED AND HAS TO BE REVISED AND REWORKED....HE DOES NOT KNOW THE FUTURE RAMIFICATIONS, BECAUSE HE HAS BROKE INTO THE FINE CHINA STORE, SHATTERED THE STORE INTO A THOUSAND PIECES AND THEN CHARGED OUT THE BACK DOOR....LEAVING THE FLOOR LITTERED WITH MILLIONS OF PIECES OF FRAGMENTED GLASS.........DESTROYED.
