EYES WIDE SHUT

cepr.net/publications/were-paying-the-tariffs-53464/


The story in other countries doesn’t look as promising for the MAGA crew. The index for imports from Japan rose 2.6% year-over-year, the index for imports from Taiwan rose 2.3% year-over-year. Clearly the overwhelming majority of Trump’s tariffs is a tax on us.

There is an issue of who the us is. Consumers have been seeing much of the tariff increase in the form of higher prices. Goods prices had been falling from the second half of 2023 until the election, when they turned around and began rising.

It is likely that retailers or intermediaries are eating some of the tariffs in the form of lower profit margins, but the CPI likely rose between 0.5-0.7 percentage points more last year than would have been the case without the tariffs. And there could be more on the way, insofar as businesses were refraining from raising prices in the hope that Trump would reverse his tariffs.

It will take more time to get good data on the ultimate incidence of the tariff, but the part borne by our trading partners is pretty straightforward. If import prices aren’t falling, they aren’t paying.

FOR ALL THE MAGA MOB AND FOR THE REST OF THE RIGHT....TRUMP IS TRULY TOTALING THE ECONOMY AND THE BIG R IS NOT FAR AWAY NOW. JMO

If 5% growth is your prediction of the economy being totaled by Trump, your analytical skills might be suspect.

Despite the tariffs, the economy is humming right along. In Mexico right now, and the dollar has been climbing against the Peso since I arrived.

Should I start investing by doing the opposite of your doomsayer predictions? I will be able to buy a new beachfront condo soon by not following your doom and gloom analysis.

FredHayek wrote: If 5% growth is your prediction of the economy being totaled by Trump, your analytical skills might be suspect.

Despite the tariffs, the economy is humming right along. In Mexico right now, and the dollar has been climbing against the Peso since I arrived.

Should I start investing by doing the opposite of your doomsayer predictions? I will be able to buy a new beachfront condo soon by not following your doom and gloom analysis.

HA’s analytical skills? Reading bad journalism and repeating that crap doesn’t require any skill and it certainly doesn’t equate to free thinking.

She doesn’t see the big picture and never will. It’s like laughing at my garden that hasn’t produced anything, even though I just planted the seeds a week ago.

FredHayek wrote: If 5% growth is your prediction of the economy being totaled by Trump, your analytical skills might be suspect.

Despite the tariffs, the economy is humming right along. In Mexico right now, and the dollar has been climbing against the Peso since I arrived.

Should I start investing by doing the opposite of your doomsayer predictions? I will be able to buy a new beachfront condo soon by not following your doom and gloom analysis.

TO BOTH U AND RICK.....ONE QUESTION,SIMPLE AND SHORT...WHY DID BUFFET PULL OUT OF STOCKS IN A SYSTEMATIC PURGING? HE IS ABSOLUTELY THE MOST ADROIT MONEY GURU.

BECAUSE HE WAS FORWARD THINKING AND SAY AROUND THE BEND OF THE MARKET....
SORRY....WHAT THE REAL PROBLEM WITH THE RIGHT SECTOR IS THIS...NO COMPREHENSION OF TIMING....HEY, LOOKS GOOD NOW, WE R GOOD TO GO....PEACHY KEEN AND PRIMED FOR
PROFIT.....THE PONZI SCHEME WAS THE SUPREME SUCKER FOR THIS LINE OF THOUGHT....
ANYONE WITH A CAUTIOUS EYE (BUFFET) WOULD HAVE SAT BACK AND WATCHED.......HEY, JMO

Buffett is also smart enough to admit he makes bad picks at times.

Personally I am following the Buffett strategy too right now. Sitting on a lot of cash. 4% passive income is sounding very good right now. I don't trust the AI bounce, and most of the stocks I like have outrageous P/E ratios currently.

A huge stock market collapse globally would reduce those P/E ratios and I would be ready to jump back in.

And the Feds are spending just as much money, if not more than before, so I don't see interest rates falling on government debt either.

Why use Buffet as your example of the smartest investor when Nancy Pelosi has done a far better job of picking winners and losers? HA, I do remember you calling her a “wise older woman”. Of course we know why she’s so good at picking stocks… don’t we?