BIG BET......BUST OR BLOOM????

www.thestreet.com/economy/imf-drops-blunt-warning-on-us-economy


he International Monetary Fund (IMF) just dropped a bombshell on the U.S. economy, and it comes with a warning investors just can’t ignore.

The global economic watchdog forecasts U.S. GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, outpacing other developed economies. However, the caveat is that the strength rests on a surprisingly narrow foundation.

According to the IMF, the U.S. tech industry, powered by unfathomable AI spending levels and a red-hot stock market, continues to do the heavy lifting.

As long as AI delivers on productivity and profits that markets are expecting, things are A-ok, but what happens if it doesn’t?


WITH THE GLOBAL GURU'S TRYING TO UNDERSTAND TRUMP'S TANTRUMS AND TARIFFS...WHAT WOULD BE YOUR GUESS?

WE SHALL SEE IF MY ON GOING WAIT AND WATCH WARNING WAS VALID.

This would be the same IMF that forecasted a 2% growth in 2025, yes? Seems they were off by just a wee bit. Not to mention, though I will, the 2% forecast was a revision of earlier forecasts that were below that number.

Out of semi-idle curiosity . . . how many years will the "wait and watch" prediction have to be extended before you might be willing to admit that it was issued in blind deference to an ideology rather than any sort of rational, independent, thinking?

Out of semi-idle curiosity . . . how many years will the "wait and watch" prediction have to be extended before you might be willing to admit that it was issued in blind deference to an ideology rather than any sort of rational, independent, thinking? OH, I DON'T THINK U WILL HAVE TO LONG AWAIT...APPARENTLY U HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWING THE NEWS....TRUMP'S ACTIONS/STATEMENTS R BUILDING A BODACIOUS FINALE.....(IN THIS CASE, BODACIOUS IS A DETRIMENT )

There is a joke called "The Cramer Effect". This network financial analyst will pump up a stock every week. People monitor the stock and report the gain/loss on that stock a year later.

His picks lose 75% of the time. It is hard making predictions! Especially when you have a disruptor like Trump in charge.

I thought his tariffs would crash the US economy. They haven't.

Maybe better advice is, "Don't Bet Against Trump?"

He lost to Biden by 20 million votes yet won reelection four years later.

Maybe people need to stop underestimating him?


He is like a "Bull In A China Shop". European leaders stand back aghast, clutching their pearls, they simply don't know what to do to stop him.

homeagain wrote: Out of semi-idle curiosity . . . how many years will the "wait and watch" prediction have to be extended before you might be willing to admit that it was issued in blind deference to an ideology rather than any sort of rational, independent, thinking? OH, I DON'T THINK U WILL HAVE TO LONG AWAIT...APPARENTLY U HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWING THE NEWS....TRUMP'S ACTIONS/STATEMENTS R BUILDING A BODACIOUS FINALE.....(IN THIS CASE, BODACIOUS IS A DETRIMENT )

And yet, for reasons unfathomable, without tether to rational thought, you choose to rely on the IMF, who missed the mark by, wait for it, nearly 150%, after revising their initial, lower, estimate numerous times, as a dependable barometer this time around?

Trying to show HA the reality of her past predictions or getting specifics on future predictions really is pointless, PS. I’ve foolishly hung around here based on the fact that she’s the last leftist in these forums willing to stick around and offer opinions (albeit they are always the opinions of others who are usually wrong).., I guess I’ve always just hoped that she would eventually learn something. I wes wrong.

It's not just the IMF mind you . . . predictions about anything economic invariably are incorrect because, like the earth's climate, there are simply too many variables to consider for any prediction to have even a modest chance of being correct.

I'm sure that someday there will be another recession here . . . so anyone who is continually shouting that we're headed for a recession will eventually be correct, but that eventuality is preceded by years of incorrect predictions. Keep betting against Trump and eventually you'll be correct too, but it's not like the surety of betting against Biden's economic or foreign policy positions, or betting that the (un)Affordable Care Act was going to result in less affordable, not more affordable, healthcare.

Exactly. Too many variables.

Imagine if Europe expels American troops. That will really hurt their economy.
All that spending would return to domestic bases. We could use the money to upgrade housing for our service members.

Imagine how much that would hurt Europe's economy.

The term always used is “”forward thinking”. I would love to hear HA’s definition and how that aligns with her actual words.