Reasons Why We Will Be in Afghanistan a While More

As I heard the first rumors of the current administration's plan to "relook" the timeline for withdrawal from Afghanistan, I decided to take a look at doctrine on counterinsurgencies. Here is why we may be in Afghanistan a good bit longer:

A principle of counterinsurgency: Counterinsurgents Should Prepare for a Long-Term Commitment

Insurgencies are protracted by nature. Thus, counterinsurgency (COIN) operations always demand considerable expenditures of time and resources. The populace may prefer the host nation (HN) government to the insurgents; however, people do not actively support a government unless they are convinced that the counterinsurgents have the means, ability, stamina, and will to win. The insurgents’ primary battle is against the HN government, not the United States; however, U.S. support can be crucial to building public faith in that government’s viability. The populace must have confidence in the staying power of both the counterinsurgents and the HN government. Insurgents and local populations often believe that a few casualties or a few years will cause the United States to abandon a COIN effort. Constant reaffirmations of commitment, backed by deeds, can overcome that perception and bolster faith in the steadfastness of U.S. support. But even the strongest U.S. commitment will not succeed if the populace does not perceive the HN government as having similar will and stamina. U.S. forces must help create that capacity and sustain that impression.

Source: Field Manual 3-24, “Counterinsurgency”
Author: Lieutenant General David H. Petraeus, Commander, US Army Combined Arms Center

Gee, I wonder where the Afghans or Taliban could have possibly gotten the impression that the U.S. was not in it for the long run? :Whistle

:thumbsup:

Yes, it looks like the Obama administration is backing away from their original day of departure. I still don't have a lot of faith in Karzai, hopefully they get the goverment squared away.

Do you have hope for Obama?????????????????????

Can you name anything he has promised that he has done?

Do you Hope for a Change???? I damn sure do, in 2012!!

Essential though it is, the military action is secondary to the political one, its primary
purpose being to afford the political power enough freedom to work safely with the population.

David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare, 1964

So although we focus daily on whether or not the "military" can "win" in Afghanistan, the real questions we ought to be asking are, Is the White House, the National Security Council and Congress up to the task? When is the State Department really going to "show up" in Afghanistan and pursue a political-diplomatic "win"? Can the politicians of our allied and coalition nations stomach what must be done there politically, diplomatically and economically?

The American soldier,airman, marine and sailor have all showed up and done their level best. They have the blood stains to prove it. When do we get to see the politicians and diplomats doing a little "bleeding" for the cause?

How does that Tobey Keith song go? "A little less talk and A LOT MORE ACTION" seems most fitting here.

I asked in another thread, what does a win look like in Afghanistan? Please define this so we can do it and get our boys home.

It's because an oil/gas pipeline. That's why.

On February 12, 1998, John J. Maresca, vice president, international relations for UNOCAL oil company, testified before the US House of Representatives, Committee on International Relations. Maresca provided information to Congress on Central Asia oil and gas reserves and how they might shape US foreign policy. UNOCAL's problem? As Maresca said: "How to get the region's vast energy resources to the markets." The oil reserves are in areas north of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. Routes for a pipeline were proposed that would transport oil on a 42-inch pipe southward thru Afghanistan for 1040 miles to the Pakistan coast. Such a pipeline would cost about $2.5 billion and carry about 1 million barrels of oil per day.

Maresca told Congress then that: "It's not going to be built until there is a single Afghan government. That's the simple answer.

Serious question. I really don't believe this is about oil. I think it is just a case of Pandora's box. We went after al Qaeda, and beat them with numbers. Now the fight is against the Taliban. Is it worth it to fight the Taliban? I feel like we are at the brink of another Vietnam with similar casualties. If we can't even define why the hell we are there as citizens, then is it right to send our sons and daughters to fight and risk life and limb?

I am serious. This is about creating a "single Afghan government." It's time to pull out and nuke the place.

towermonkey wrote: I asked in another thread, what does a win look like in Afghanistan? Please define this so we can do it and get our boys home.

From "Backtrack Barry" thread

travelingirl wrote: I do not have the expertise or information to make any valid military judgement, but I do believe the following:

1) Defeat the Taliban. If pressure is taken away they will do it again.

2) Stablize Afghanistan. The people of Afghanistan want the Taliban to go away. They are aligning themselves to those who will deliver security for their families, education for their children, and basic infrastructure, such as electricity, roads, clinics and hospitals. If they think we aren't in for the long haul, out of fear, they'll submit to heavy-hand of the Taliban and they're back to aggression, genocide, abuse of religion. etc. Women and children are being liberated from the opressiveness they suffered for generations - another overlooked postive outcome.

3) Prevent another 9/11. Seems like 9/11 is just a faint memory but I still get ill when I think about those people jumping out of windows.

4) It's the moral thing to do. The Taliban and others like them need to know their "jihad" and other forms of terrorism will not be tolerated.

I think Georgetown University terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman said it best:

"You can make the argument that we're in way over our heads, that we're in a quixotic quest -- except that there is still al-Qaeda. If we don't succeed -- and success for me is stabilizing Afghanistan and fixing Pakistan -- we're looking at another 9/11. Obama needs to jolt us out of our complacency, and soon...But sometimes we really do have something to be scared about. If we've learned anything from 9/11, we should understand that time is now."