Approval Ratings and Re-Election Odds

Approval Ratings and Re-Election Odds

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... tion-odds/

"Earlier this month, we posted the simple version of a finding, based on the historical record, that is worth keeping in mind when you read articles about how Barack Obama’s presidency has (or has not been) been revitalized: It’s just too soon for his approval ratings to tell us very much about his re-election prospects for 2012.

This is an overdue follow-up to that article — what you might think of as the slightly-more-complicated version.

While it’s true that approval ratings aren’t of much use now, it’s also the case that, by the time we get close to the election, they will have become a very reliable predictor of Mr. Obama’s chances of winning another term."

I think Obama's approval ratings will continue to go up as long as the Republican house keeps up their attacks on him personally and doesn't start to tackle those issues they made promises on.....I haven't heard them even mention jobs since they got into office....only repeal Obamacare, and block the presidents attempts to freeze spending, stop earmarks....etc. If the Republicans saty obcessed with with this goal of taking down Obama, they may well find themselves on the outside looking in when 2012 comes around.

Obama is playing it smart....he sounds like the reasonable leader, willing to work with the house and senate, and the Republican leaders sound like the lunatic fringe, hell bent on punishing the president for anything and everything.

When the economy still sucks and unemployment is still high in 2012, Obama better come up with some of his best hypnotizing speeches because that's the only asset he will have. I know there will still be plenty of lemmings out there willing to give him another chance, but I don't believe there will be enough.

After 4 years in office, the blame Bush game will no longer work, it will be the consequences of his policies that the conscience people will care about, not his lame promises.

I still think it will be up to the Republicans to prove they can actually follow through with their promises, if they prove as ineffectual as they have in previous times when they held a majority, the voters will turn their backs on them, just as they did the democrats when promises weren't kept. Voters are very fickle, they vote on the present, not the past or future.

archer wrote: I still think it will be up to the Republicans to prove they can actually follow through with their promises, if they prove as ineffectual as they have in previous times when they held a majority, the voters will turn their backs on them, just as they did the democrats when promises weren't kept. Voters are very fickle, they vote on the present, not the past or future.

For once we agree, although as you know, the Republicans can do very little right now with the Dems controlling the Senate and Obama holding the veto pen. All they can really do is make real attempts at the change Americans (who voted for them) want and wait until they have the same power Democrats had in 2009 and 2010. If the Democratic policies bear fruit, then it will be a game changer....we'll know in 21 months.

And yet once again from the dept of redundancy dept,



"2. Hold your newly elected politician's feet to the fire the first time he breaks ranks on a key vote. He is like a puppy. When he leaves a mess on the carpet, get out the switch. "Bad dog! Bad dog!" Let him remember that switch"................


http://www.garynorth.com/public/6827.cfm