Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report for 2011

Most water users in the basin can look forward to near average to above average runoff for the April through September forecast period. The exceptions to this are Bear Creek above Evergreen, Bear Creek at Morrison and the Antero Reservoir Inflow which are slated to produce streamflows that are 71, 65 and 66 percent of average, respectively.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/fcst/state/monthly/borco311.pdf

Pretty dry March so far. As it is usually one of our snowiest months, I would bet the numbers for percent of average go down for the next report posted on April 1. I am rather surprised at the Antero number of 66% but more alarmed by the Bear Creek numbers.

I am predicting peak runoff for Bear Creek to hit first week of May if we don't get any measurable (good) snowfall by then. These winds are really stripping it away fast.

how much are we down for the 285 corridor? Do we keep those records?

Was hiking in the Kenosha's this weekend at 10,000 feet and was surprised to see it is still knee and waist deep snow in the dark timber. With how warm it has been. I was usre the snow would be gone by now. Would like to see a couple big spring snows.

Quincy is lowest ever for an opening day I can ever remember. It is bad down here too.

outdoor338 wrote: how much are we down for the 285 corridor? Do we keep those records?

I typically use the Echo Lake Snotel site to judge the North Fork basin.
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/site?sitenum=936&state=co
They have elevation and weather patters similar to the upper 285 corridor. So I would guess we are around 70%.
You can check the USGS streamflow records to see what the flows are at a couple places from Grant through Pine. You can see current, historical and average flows but this is skewed by the operations of the Roberts Tunnel (shut down for maintenance until April).
Aspen Park and a good deal of Conifer are in the Bear Creek watershed via N & S Turkey creeks.

I was up on Guanella Pass on Sunday and was able to drive farther up than I can remember for this time of year. There are many places in the trees and north/shaded slopes where snow is still hip deep+, but the higher elevations don't look that good.

March was pretty dismal for being the average snowiest month of the year. Our weather station in Evergreen we recieved about .78 inches of precipitation for the month.

Attached is the Colorado Basin Outlook report for April 1, 2011.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/fcst/state/monthly/borco411.pdf

Of particular note is the fact that the snow courses above Antero Reservoir all reported no snow and Echo Lake SNOTEL at the headwaters of Bear Creek was only 60 percent of average on April 1.

Clear Creek at Golden should see flows of 134 percent of average. The exception to this, reflected by very low snowpacks, are the Inflow to Antero Reservoir, Bear Creek above Evergreen and Bear Creek at Morrison which are expected to produce flows of 41, 51 and 41 percent of average, respectively.

NOT GOOD :scared: :VeryScared:

This means that if you are caught flicking a lit cig out your window you could be pulled from your car and beaten to death by anyone that lives up here.

Even Denver proper is very dry. The grass was crunching under my feet yesterday. My workplace turned on the sprinklers a month early.

thanks for the links photo-fish

Here is the Report for May.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/fcst/state/monthly/borco511.pdf

Bear Creek is still estimated at 51% of average volume from April -September.
Antero does not look so well either. Roberts Tunnel in Grant has been flowing to the N. Fork of S. Platte since 2nd week in April.

SS109 wrote: Even Denver proper is very dry. The grass was crunching under my feet yesterday. My workplace turned on the sprinklers a month early.

I hope their sprinkler systems are tied into recycled water. Water demand will only get greater in the years ahead and we do need to look at conservation, not just when we are forced to do so, but every day. Perhaps a rock garden as opposed to lawn is in order?