Peak Oil Production May Already Be Here

Just some FYI.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6024/1510.full
Peak Oil Production May Already Be Here
Science 25 March 2011:
Vol. 331 no. 6024 pp. 1510-1511
DOI: 10.1126/science.331.6024.1510
1. Richard A. Kerr

Five years ago, many oil experts saw trouble looming. In 10 years or so, they said, oil producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would likely be unable to pump oil any faster (Science, 18 November 2005, p. 1106). Non-OPEC oil production would peak, no matter the effort applied. All the high-technology exploration and drilling, all the frontier-pushing bravado of the oil industry would no longer stave off the inevitable as OPEC gains an even stronger hand among the world's oil producers.

Five years on, it appears those experts may have been unduly optimistic—non-OPEC oil production may have been peaking as they spoke. Despite a near tripling of world oil prices, non-OPEC production, which accounts for 60% of world output, hasn't increased significantly since 2004. And many of those same experts, as well as some major oil companies, don't see it increasing again—ever. In their view, it's stuck on a flat-topped peak or plateau at present levels of production for another decade or so before starting to decline.

Optimists remain. Some experts still see production from new frontiers, such as Kazakhstan, the deep waters off Brazil, and the oil sands of Canada, pushing production above the current plateau in the next few years. But time's running out to prove that newly discovered fields and new technology can more than compensate for flagging production from the rapidly aging fields beyond OPEC.

But what about unconventional oil, the hard-to-get-at oil that's only extractable using the latest in high technology? Such unconventional oil is out there in abundance, everyone agrees, and more will be produced than in the past. However, some major oil companies as well as other analysts don't see unconventional oil boosting non-OPEC production much in the next 20 years. In their most recent annual energy outlooks to 2030, both ExxonMobil and BP—two of the world's largest independent oil companies—forecast that non-OPEC production will more or less hold its own, no better.

OPEC would, it is fervently hoped outside of the cartel, be willing and able to boost its output of conventional oil. ExxonMobil has OPEC production rising from about 29 million barrels per day today to about 36 million barrels per day in 2030. That would increase OPEC's share of oil production even further, but Kaufmann, among others, expects that OPEC will see an opportunity to make more money from its oil by curbing production and driving prices up.

OmniScience wrote: This is nothing more than pure speculation. The same thing we've heard for decades.

If it was only speculation, then they wouldn't be talking about the data showing the lack of increase in non-OPEC production.

www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6024/1510.full
Running to stay in place

There's no debate about the reality of the 6-year-and-counting plateau of non-OPEC production. Output stagnated at about 40 million barrels a day beginning in 2004 after rising from an earlier plateau in the early 1990s, one induced by a low price for oil. But prices have been anything but low lately. They have gone from about $35 a barrel early in the past decade to double and nearly triple that. Normally, higher prices would encourage more production, but not this time. Since 2004, “there's been a tremendous increase in price, yet this is all we get for it, stable production,” Kaufmann says. “It's quite stark.”

The recession may have put a damper on prices, but oil companies still made billions in profits and spent millions in exploration - they understand that easy sources are ending, and from here on out prices and costs will rise. It takes more than a few years to get a site to production.

SS109 wrote: If we didn't, you would be seeing increased international spending on alternative energy sources for reasons besides carbon emissions.

There is.
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resourc ... 301418401/

Germany passed the United States as the world's second-biggest clean energy market as Britain dropped from third to 13th place and China extended its lead, a new study suggests.

Global investment in clean energy such as solar, wind and biomass jumped 30 percent last year to $243 billion, research released Tuesday by the Pew Charitable Trusts indicated. More than 90 percent of investments were made in the world's 20 most industrialized nations, Pew said.

"The clean energy sector is emerging as one of the most dynamic and competitive in the world, witnessing 630 percent growth in finance and investments since 2004," Phyllis Cuttino, director of Pew's clean energy program, said in a statement.

The Pew Charitable Trusts Summary: http://www.pewtrusts.org/our_work_repor ... x?id=57969

For example, in relative terms, Spain invested five times more than the United States last year, and China, Brazil and the United Kingdom invested three times more. In all, 10 G-20 members devoted a greater percentage of gross domestic product to clean energy than the United States in 2009. Finally, the Unites States is on the verge of losing its leadership position in installed renewable energy capacity, with China surging in the last several years to a virtual tie.

The report: http://www.pewtrusts.org/uploadedFiles/ ... pdf?n=5939

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea ... -for-china

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-03-sol ... e-chu.html
Wind, solar becoming cost competitive: Chu
March 23, 2011

"Before maybe the end of this decade, I see wind and solar being cost-competitive without subsidy with new fossil fuel," Chu told an event at the Pew Charitable Trusts.

(I don't believe these claims by Energy Secretary Chu without seeing the data on which he bases this statement, but it is intriguing. If fossil fuel prices rise dramatically, as is projected, it's not unbelievable.)

Data reduces speculation - while statistics can be played with, data is data. If production has remained the same, barrel-wise for over 6 years, then there's nothing speculative about that. Unless the data's been fudged.

The title is speculative because this article's focus is on non-OPEC production. OPEC production is still assumed to not be at maximum so it can be increased to offset "peak" production, which is why it "may not be here" yet.