American oil independence: Who is kidding who?

Came across comparative information on proven reserves in the US vs. a single field, Ghawar, in Saudi Arabia. A lot of numbers are being bantered around these days regarding the huge 1.5 trillion potential oil reserves in the US and that these rival the reserves in the Middle East. Visions of independence from foreign oil dance in many people's heads. But there is a HUGE difference between potential and proven. Potential does not equate into being produceable. The proven oil reserves in the US currently are 22.3 billion remaining, those of Ghawar, one of the largest oil fields in the world, stands at an estimated 140 billion, of which 74 billion remains to be produced. For argument's sake, let us assume that about 1/3 of the oil shale potential can actually be converted into proven reserves. This assumption takes into account shale reserves that are not commercially viable and shale reserves beneath urban areas. To have us realize such a bonanza, still requires not only opening government lands to drilling, but also massive mining efforts where the oil shale is at the surface. And, how long will it take to convert potential to proven? Between governmental regulations and environmentalists activity, I would not want to invest my IRA on that happening in a lifetime. So who are we kidding about becoming independent of foreign oil? The ONLY possibility remains in alternative energy for mainstream transportation and that does not mean electric vehicles, but say hydrogen powered transportation.

Franz, any thoughts on NG. I just read somewhere that 4 dollars of NG has the energy equivalent of 7 gallons of diesel.

I will see if I can remember where I read it.

From a poster on another site. No idea if he is credible.


"we have all the natural gas we will need for 100 or perhaps several hundred more years in the approximately 20 shale formations in the lower 48 states. these shale formations are the reason ng is still only about $4/mcf. 1 mcf ng is equivalent to 7 GALLONS of diesel fuel. so we are talking about $4 to $28 for the same energy to move a truck/car. "

And yet, Colorado Gas charges more for NG than just about anyone.

BTW, I look forward to the day, hopefully soon, when we have a comprehensive, workable plan to be independent. Pollyana-ish, I know.

i do not know the energy conversion, but if it is as you cite, then I find it difficult to understand why there has not been a major move toward gas powered vehicles.

Lobbyists probably. i'd love to convert my vehicle to NG, but where to fill it?

chickaree wrote: Lobbyists probably. i'd love to convert my vehicle to NG, but where to fill it?

NG is a problem, but with a little change in jets, this could be Propane. Aren't those prices about the same?

Interesting numbers Doc. I always wondered why we don't go after more of our own resources, and set a goal of 75% US production. Its now 50/50 I think. More jobs, less imports, better trade balance and energy security. It doesn't have to mean more CO2.

Natural gas cars would be good too, the infrastructure to re-fill cars is lacking and there seems to be no push to speed it up. Seems like it would work for fleets too.

Anyone read Twilight in the Desert? The author makes a pretty compelling argument that Saudi reserves are overstated & that their production costs are likely to rise substantially in the foreseeable future.

DRILL BABY, DRILL!!!





EDITED to add:While we remove the hand-cuffs from all those evil oil corperations & companies, so they can research and DEVELOP an alternate sources of power.