Another Obama Win

Scholar's “13 Keys” Predict Another Obama Win
By Maralee Csellar
July 12, 2010
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Allan Lichtman

Although the next presidential election is 28 months away, President Barack Obama's reelection in 2012 is nearly guaranteed despite former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s prediction that Obama has only a 20 percent chance, according to American University Professor Allan Lichtman. Lichtman’s “13 Keys” system predicts the outcome of the popular vote based on the performance of the party and not the use of candidate preference polls, campaign tactics, or events.

http://www.american.edu/media/news/2010 ... n_2012.cfm

Well then, since he's going to win, all those Democrats can stay home rather than go to the polls, right?

This guy needs to lay off the

I think a Republican victory isn't a given. Clinton suffered a lot of setbacks in his first term, but Dole still lost.

There is a lot of power in being a incumbent.

That article is over a year old. Much has changed since then.

Here's an updated prediction from last May:

The winning of Key 11 thus strengthens my early prediction that the president will secure re-election in 2012. Only a historically unprecedented reversal of fortune could alter the verdict of the keys.

http://ww2.gazette.net/stories/05272011 ... _32542.php

I still don't see an Obama victory as a given. I'm not even sure he will end up as the candidate.

My gut feeling is he will not seek re-election. But that's based on nothing but a hunch.

WayneH wrote: I still don't see an Obama victory as a given. I'm not even sure he will end up as the candidate.

My gut feeling is he will not seek re-election. But that's based on nothing but a hunch.

I think if it was up to him, he would not seek a second term, but I am betting the king makers are going to demand he run. He owes them too many favors.

I think he can bow out, citing family matters, and let a stronger candidate with less baggage battle the Republican nominee. The king makers always hedge their bets and contribute to both sides.

WayneH wrote: I still don't see an Obama victory as a given. I'm not even sure he will end up as the candidate.

My gut feeling is he will not seek re-election. But that's based on nothing but a hunch.

I believe the country would be better off if he did exactly this. As I've said before. He had his ideas, they were unsuccessful. New ideas are needed. Obama is out of bullets in his gun. The problem is, other than Hillary, I don't think there are any dems who have better ideas. The majority congress from 2008-2010 was controlled exclusively by dems, and no economy boosting bills came from there either. Any good dem governors who have a growing economy in their state?