Forget the polls, Obama is still winning

The Bain argument fell flat... move on and find a real story to bitch about.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/2 ... 22933.html


Huffpost has a different take...

Democracy4Sale wrote: Oh, sorry... I've been busy... WORKING....

Today: Obama: 271 / RMoney: 191 (270 to win)...

Sorry... You still lose....

no source?

and what makes you think I lose?
typical coming from you ask a question and get a smart a** sh*t for brains answer.

The 500 Foundation wrote: www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/univer...do-pr_n_1822933.html


Huffpost has a different take...

Since it's an article from AUGUST, I'm not surprised.

Thanks Raees I appreciate that

I was just trying to rush through a google search at lunch.
still trying to find the article a saw first but I won't have time
to get back to looking until tonight.

Thanks again for catching it

here is a link that might have some historical data on it.
For a week or so, Romney did show ahead of Obama

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Thanks Becky
it looks like Realclear has Big O at 201/Rmoney at 191

Come on LJ where did you see Big O had 271?
surely you didn't just make it up, right?

(insert smarta** sh*t for brains answer here_______)

She's getting her figures from Huff-n-Puff.

On 25 September she reported Huff-n-Puff as saying Obama 332, Romney 191
On 4 October she informed us that Huff-n-Puff was saying Obama 303, Romney 191
On 15 October she brought us the news that it was Obama 281, Romney 206
Today she is telling us its Obama 277, Romney 206

I see a definite trend developing here 500. Give it another week and even Huff-n-Puff will be telling us that Obama has fallen below the magic number of 270.

One thing for certain, Obama isn't going to be getting anywhere near the 365 votes he got in 2008. Even if Obama does happen to prevail a week from next Tuesday it will be without the support from the electorate that he and his fellow Democrats are going to need to stand firm on plans to raise taxes on families making more than $250K a year above and beyond what has already been done through the ACA.

FWIW I think the folks out at Huff-n-Puff, along with everyone hanging out in that echo chamber, are going to find out that it was a bad idea to weight polls using data from the 2008 election.

I just heard on the radio that early voting in Colorado is around 650K ballots. And while it is usually the Democrats who vote early, the exit poll data is showing that more of those early votes are being cast for Romney instead of Obama.

I really have difficulty believing that Obama can get a return engagement with less support than he was elected with originally. Even George W Bush was elected by a greater margin the second time than he was the first.

Actually, at the moment, it's up to: Obama: 277 / RMoney: 206 ....



Election Dashboard

Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through a poll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day.

Currently, it shows:

Colorado - Tossup - Obama, approx 1-point lead
Florida - Tossup - RMoney 0.5 point lead
Virginia - Tossup - Obama 0.7 point lead

Iowa - Obama - +3
Ohio - Obama +2
Pennsylvania - Obama +6
Michigan - Obama +8
New Mexico - Obama +9
Nevada - Obama +3
Wisconsin - Obama +4

to name a few....

All from Huff-n-Puff. Doesn't address the potential flaw in the weighting models which rely on participation data from 2008 and presume that it is a fair predictor of how the vote will shape up this year. If indeed that is the case, and is resulting in somewhere between 3 and 5 points being shown for Obama that shouldn't be, you may see a reversal of the results from 2008 instead of a close election.

Obama might even mirror Bush and win the electoral vote while losing the popular one this time around given the reports that Romney has crossed the 50% thresh hold in a number of polls.