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Democracy4Sale wrote: Yes... Please keep telling yourself that...
538 has it a 97.3% probability of an Obama win...
My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.
Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... ly-biased/
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The Liberals GOP Twin wrote: The New York Daily News endorsed Obama yesterday/today. Last election they were square in endorsing President Obama. The New York Daily News is the NYT lite.
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Raees wrote:
The Liberals GOP Twin wrote: The New York Daily News endorsed Obama yesterday/today. Last election they were square in endorsing President Obama. The New York Daily News is the NYT lite.
Not by a long stretch. They are owned by Rupert Murdoch.
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“I think the conventional wisdom is trending now towards a Obama win, something along the lines of what Karl Rove and his team pulled off for President Bush in 2004, but I’m by no means certain,” Hume told Fox News host Chris Wallace. “And there’s this striking discrepancy between national polls — which tend to be done, by and large, by older, more-seasoned polling firms — and state polls — a number of which are done by less-established firms. The national polls have this a tie. The state polls, as you just suggested — the battleground state polls suggest and indicate that President Obama is ahead in all of them.”
“It seems striking that there would be this difference,” he added. “And it is sobering, if you’re a Romney supporter, to think that he is trailing or just tied in so many of those states.”
“I think it’s unlikely — it’s hard to imagine as a political journalist that all these many polls are off. But the discrepancy is unmistakable and puzzling.”
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Raees wrote: My mistake. I was thinking of the Wall Street Journal. The New York Daily News is owned by Mortimer Zuckerman, an influential Jewish guy.
"Zuckerman, a long-time supporter of the Democratic party who cast his vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, was critical of President Obama on several fronts. Following the downgrade of US treasury debt by Standard & Poor's in 2011, Zuckerman wrote in the Wall Street Journal: "I long for a triple-A president to run a triple-A country."[17] After initially supporting President Obama's call for heavy infrastructure spending to revive the economy, Zuckerman criticized the composition of the plan, stating "But if you look at the make-up of the stimulus program, roughly half of it went to state and local municipalities, which is in effect to the municipal unions which are at the core of the Democratic party."[17]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortimer_Zuckerman
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Raees wrote: Even Fox News is beginning to see reality. Britt Hume on Fox News this morning.
“I think the conventional wisdom is trending now towards a Obama win, something along the lines of what Karl Rove and his team pulled off for President Bush in 2004, but I’m by no means certain,” Hume told Fox News host Chris Wallace. “And there’s this striking discrepancy between national polls — which tend to be done, by and large, by older, more-seasoned polling firms — and state polls — a number of which are done by less-established firms. The national polls have this a tie. The state polls, as you just suggested — the battleground state polls suggest and indicate that President Obama is ahead in all of them.”
“It seems striking that there would be this difference,” he added. “And it is sobering, if you’re a Romney supporter, to think that he is trailing or just tied in so many of those states.”
“I think it’s unlikely — it’s hard to imagine as a political journalist that all these many polls are off. But the discrepancy is unmistakable and puzzling.”
Raw Story ( http://s.tt/1rWqB )
“There is considerable heartburn among Republicans these days over polls that seem to have a disprortionate number of Democrats responding… In a strong year for Democratic candidates more people will say their Democrats and vice versa… Four years ago in a very big for Democrats election day exit polling showed more Democrats voted than Republicans by seven percentage points. The same margin by the way that Barack Obama won the election. Not many people believe as many Democrats will vote this year. Yet a compilation of all recent polls by Pollster.com showed samples contained on average more Democrats by, you guessed it, seven percentage points.”
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The Liberals GOP Twin wrote: The New York Daily News endorsed Obama yesterday/today. Last election they were square in endorsing President Obama. The New York Daily News is the NYT lite.
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