Fred, no one here is talking about 'exit polls', you probably knew that from what I've seen of your MO in the past. Exit polls are notorious for being randomly inaccurate. This is about the polling that happens BEFORE every election. You guys just focused on the ones that showed Romney leading. Those in the reality based community did research, compared polls and went to sites like FiveThirtyEight and Princeton Election Consortium where the data from ALL the polls are weighted and avereraged to show much higher levels of accuracy. Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight) and Sam Wang (PEC) were ranked 1/2 in 2008. Those who want real numbers that are accurate vs. want what makes 'em feel better are drawn to those type of sites.
Exit polls are notorious for being inaccurate? And that belief formed because of miscalls like 2004. And a lot of the polling companies didn't even use them this time because early voting was so common.
But there are some good reasons for the delusion, no one has won re-election with unemployment so high since FDR.
The economy was still poor. And to the right, they just couldn't understand how people could vote for Obama. (And 10 million people chose to not vote for Barack this time.)
I heard the pep rally guys like Hugh Hewitt. and while they made me feel good I still knew it would be tough to win without winning all of the battleground states and probably stealing a few blue states.
You guys are acting today like Obama winning was a foregone conclusion but Team Axelrod wasn't acting that way, they were still pulling out all the stops until the very end. Going into debt to make sure they would beat Mitt.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
People remember how we got to those numbers and just how bad it was. It was the deepest recession since the great depression. It seems that there was a great deal of misinformation coming from the right to paint Pres. Obama as the cause of the 750k jobs lost at the end of 2008 start of 2009. He did everything he could to turn this around and things are getting better, in spite of the clear focus of the republican congress to counter any progress in doing so. Your party wanted to believe that the electorate was that stupid that they did not see that. The words from your party leaders that they were going to put making Pres Obama a one term president took priority over helping the recovery.
Also, people who 'pull out all the stops' until the end, are smart and usually win. Never stop in until the fat lady sings....
Actually some of the analysis coming about about the missing 3 million Republican voters seems to be that Mitt wasn't conservative enough. But I think it would make more sense next time to go for a more McCain type. Moderate.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
Let's face it...There were some social-conservatives that couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Mormon...(or a black); so, they sat it out. There were some that didn't think he was pro-life enough; anti-gay enough, ad nauseum... You run a moderate next time, you'll probably lose a bunch of them again. You run someone who's even more conservative, and the numbers already show that all you are getting is a lower and lower percentage of a dwindling demographic--the ONLY one you have--older, white men.
I sincerely hope they go farther to the right. And frankly, I don't think they can help themselves. The teabaggers and the christian-right will primary anything less, and leave you with another unelectable candidate.
This just showed up... I post it to point out the paragraph about why they were so shell-shocked when it became apparent that they would lose. As with the rest of the hermetically-sealed echo-chamber, they kept relying on their own skewed polls, and refused to look at anything that didn't tell them what they wanted to hear. When it became obvious their polls were wrong, there was a meltdown....
Mitt Romney 'Shellshocked' After Lost Election, Adviser Says
WASHINGTON -- As Republicans search for reasons why they came up short in Tuesday's elections, anonymous Mitt Romney advisers have described what it was like to be with the former governor as he came to terms with his loss.
"He was shellshocked," one adviser told CBS News.
Another unnamed senior adviser explained that as returns came in and battleground states went into President Barack Obama's Electoral College column, they felt their paths to potential victory narrowing. CBS reports that the campaign was unprepared for this in part because it had ignored polling that showed the races favoring Obama. Instead, it turned to its own internal "unskewed" polls, which it believed more accurately reflected the situation on the ground. They didn't.
On the eve of the election, a number of polling aggregators, including HuffPost's Pollster and New York Times' FiveThirtyEight, showed Obama with a huge statistical advantage over Romney.
This is a HUGE reason for the Karl Rove meltdown on FauxNews... They were in NO WAY prepared for ANY outcome other than the one their own skewed polls were telling them.
Or omission. Fox & Friends (Limbaugh, O'Reilly, Drudge) never gave the same importance to polls that showed Romney behind. I think everyone who bought into the Fox scenario was shell shocked by the outcome because they were never prepared for it. I even thought the final outcome was going to be much closer than it actually turned out to be.
Deliberately concentrating on slanted polls that tell your viewers what you want them to believe, and ignoring polls that disturb the bubble narrative that you want them to believe is lying. You can spin it any way you like.
They even brought a steady stream of people onto FauxNews to tell how the "polls from other sources were slanted to the left because of the bias of the MSM".... I suppose you can do that... But don't tell me it was because they were deluded... They CHOSE their reality.
A new report says Romney too was shocked to see the results. After years of seeing slanted anti-Romney articles in the New York Times you can see why they wouldn't want to trust their pollster. Especially when Nate says Dems would be over represented as highly as 2008.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.