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The House of Representatives' Committee on Science, Space and Technology sent a tweet on Thursday linking to an article on the conservative media outlet Breitbart, saying that Earth's temperatures are in a "plunge."
Judging from reactions on Twitter — one of which was a stinging burn tweeted by Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont — many are finding it deeply and sadly ironic that the Science Committee doesn't recognize the overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is real and influenced by human activity.
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Back in 1988, NASA's James Hansen made some of the first projections of future global warming with a global climate model (Hansen 1988). He created 3 scenarios which he called Scenarios A, B, and C which used various possible future greenhouse gas emissions levels. Scenario A used a model with accelerating greenhouse gas emissions, Scenario B had linearly increasing emissions, and Scenario C had emissions leveling off after the year 2000. None of these models ended up matching greenhouse gas emissions exactly right, but the radiative forcing (energy imbalance) in Scenario B was closest, too high by about 10% as of 2009. Additionally, the climate sensitivity in Hansen's 1988 model (4.2°C global warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2) was a bit higher than today's best estimate (3°C warming for CO2 doubling).
Hansen's Scenario B projected a global warming trend from 1984-2009 of 0.26°C per decade. The actual trend as measured by surface temperature stations over that period was about 0.2°C per decade. When corrected for the 10% smaller radiative forcing than Scenario B and the higher climate sensitivity in Hansen's models, his study projected the global warming over the ensuing 25 years almost perfectly .
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It's what it would have been a hundred years ago, or even 50 years ago before we started seeing the beginnings of climate change that we do now. The oceans are acidifying, killing coral reefs and altering sea life. Before we saw species move habitats to different latitudes or elevations, before many of the extinctions now happening. (See the pika for an example). Before we started the process of the glaciers melting and retreating, Arctic sea ice shrinking, Antartica calving and sending fresh water into our oceans. Before we started seeing "storms of the century" happening more frequently than once a century.ramage wrote: We are in agreement that homo sapiens influence the climate. It is refreshing that you realize that man does not have the ability to control the climate. Now the question I posit is, "what would the climate be if the 'natural forcings' were the only factor?
Of course not! That allowed some fantastic beasts to develop and wander our planet for an era, leaving us creatures' fossils to study and allow our imaginations to run wild creating stories involving them.ramage wrote: Are you upset by the fact that 'natural forcings' created a tropical climate that allowed dinosaurs to thrive in Canada, Montana, Wyoming and Colorado, to name but a few areas in which they lived?
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The two largest human influences are greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, mostly from burning coal, oil, and natural gas (sulfur emissions tend to have a net cooling effect). The largest natural influences on the global temperature are the 11-year solar cycle, volcanic activity, and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The amount of warming caused by the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 may be one of the most misunderstood subjects in climate science. Many people think the anthropogenic warming can't be quantified, many others think it must be an insignificant amount. However, climate scientists have indeed quantified the anthropogenic contribution to global warming using empirical observations and fundamental physical equations.
Yes, quite obviously natural forcings created the climate of any era before humans even existed.ramage wrote: As you state if "natural forcings" would have resulted in the climate of one hundred years age or even 50 years ago, wouldn't it be 'natural forcings" that created a tropical climate in the Rocky Mountain Region as i had previously referenced?
Here's where I'm a little confused and it's why I started with defining natural vs anthropogenic forcings. Climatologists do not use the term "internal forcings" so I'm not sure what you mean there or how you came up with an estimate of "internal forcings" being half of natural forcings. Can you elaborate, or does it fit into what I explained above?ramage wrote: Are not homo sapiens and all other plant and animal life perhaps a portion of the internal forcings which is half of the" natural forcings" or would you prefer that no life forms existed and therefore the climate could be a function of your concept of "natural forcings"?
I do know that it hasn't been officially accepted yet.ScienceChic wrote: It's no surprise that they have proposed that we are entering a new one, the Anthropocene, based on projections of what will occur over the next hundred to several hundred years because of the influences we've put on the climate and strain on the planet with our unsustainable use of natural and limited resources.
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