RFK, Jr. has substantial support among democrats and independents. Christie has little to no support.
I can't think of a state where his candidacy would make a difference.
#1) Ron DeSantis supporters. When RdS drops out, his coalition of support, the Never Trump Republicans, will flow to RFK Jr.
#2) Approximately one-third of unregistered, unaffiliated or what we would call “independent” voters. About a third of them.
Independents will fracture into three subsets. Approximately 1/3 supporting Gavin Newsom. Approximately 1/3 supporting Donald Trump. Approximately 1/3 supporting Robert Kennedy Jr.
With DeSantis Republicans and one-third of independent voters, that’s the RFK Jr. coalition.
ramage wrote: RFK, Jr. has substantial support among democrats and independents. Christie has little to no support.
I can't think of a state where his candidacy would make a difference.
I don’t know about that. I think there’s plenty of so called “moderate” Republicans that won’t vote Democrat but also won’t vote for Trump. Even if a guy line Christie just pulled 5% from Trump, that could be enough to hand it to the Democrats. I do think RFK will have more support, but some Republicans may vote for him as well. Not all Republican voters know the charges against Trump are just political and not real crimes.
As to Christie, realism will rear its head.
1. He would have to build and organization and find a way to get his name on the ballot, That takes money. RFK, Jr has been organizing on the ground and it would not surprise me if in his anticipated October speech at Independence Hall, he announces as a candidate of the Green party. The Greens already have a organization in place and are on the ballot in most if not all states. For a Colorado simile consider Tom Tancredo's run for governor as the candidate of the Constitution party. Christie has no place to go.
2. Christie would effectively cut his ties with the Republican Party and his source of income.
Chris Christie made millions of dollars in lobbying and consultancy fees in the past six years after leaving his New Jersey governor position in 2018, the New York Times reported. This is a Bloomberg article and it is behind a firewall.
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-...e-nyt-says#xj4y7vzkg
3. However, should he be elected he would become the heaviest President in history.. W.H. Taft is listed at 340# Christie is 350+#. At least he will be the heaviest candidate in our history.
4.
Like every other TDS Tepublican, his chances of wining any election as a Republican is basically near zero imo so he really would have nothing to lose anyway. Anyone who claims to be a conservative but wants to take out Trump would get plenty of money to run a campaign. Lincoln Project losers and the like would surely rally the moderate weaklings even if they knew he didn’t have a chance to win… he would only have to siphon off enough votes to hurt Trump. Heck, he’d probably get money from Democrats as well.
I still think Trump’s greatest threat is a bullet meant for his head.
LONG READ.....I came away "blown" because a televised interview with him was rich with history and ran the entire spectrum from Cuba/Bay of Pigs, Vietnam,Nixon, CIA the two assassinations ,,Ukraine, Putin,,Russia/ China and his views on present POTUS. It was a VERY cohesive and a calm discussion.
He doesn’t have support, YET. I think Christie is by far the most articulate, if not accurate, critic of Trump. Think of how many Republican must have voted for Biden, specifically women. The system will try to stop Trump any way it can before it’s goes to the last resort, aka being JFK’d. If the Rino’s start throwing money at Christie’s campaign, they help to ensure the damage machine keeps running for as long as possible. Trump certainly isn’t getting stung much by anyone else.
I think there’s a chance RFK will siphon off a significant number of Trump hating Republicans as well. The percentage of people who don’t want either Trump or Biden has to be pretty high, which makes an Independent more viable. This will be an amazing sh$t show to watch.