are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

Replied by ScienceChic on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

Papers that haven't been peer-reviewed need to be considered skeptically, especially when claiming something that's likely a conspiracy theory (did you know that Russian media have hinted we're to blame for this outbreak ?). There is a hierarchy of poor to excellent scientific journals based on the rigorousness and quality of papers they publish that should be considered as well.

As to that article you shared PS, it has already been withdrawn by its authors and slammed by other scientists (see comments on the original article, which now has a note at the top that it's been withdrawn).

Before we go through the comments, the authors of the paper have provided this statement on February 1, 2020 (emphasis added):

“This is a preliminary study. Considering the grave situation, it was shared in BioRxiv as soon as possible to have creative discussion on the fast evolution of SARS-like corona viruses. It was not our intention to feed into the conspiracy theories and no such claims are made here. While we appreciate the criticisms and comments provided by scientific colleagues at BioRxiv forum and elsewhere, the story has been differently interpreted and shared by social media and news platforms. We have positively received all criticisms and comments. To avoid further misinterpretation and confusions world-over, we have decided to withdraw the current version of the preprint and will get back with a revised version after reanalysis, addressing the comments and concerns. Thank you to all who contributed in this open-review process.” – Prashant Pradhan, Kusuma School of biological sciences, Indian institute of technology.

Jing Hou (The Donnelly Center, University of Toronto) wrote:
“[T]he conclusion made by the authors lacks scientific merits.

As already pointed out in multiple comments, the so called unique insertions in the Wuhan isolates compared to the SARS isolate are cherry picked. In fact, a simple blast returned alignments with Bat SARS-like coronavirus that does contain 3/4 insertions in the most recent isolate from 2015, strain SL-CoVZXC21, from bats in the Hubei province, where the novel infectious virus supposedly originated (see attached figure).

I strongly suggest that the authors revise or retract this manuscript.”


In contrast, this has been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication at one of the two leading journals in the world, Nature:
A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin
Peng Zhou, Xing-Lou Yang, […]Zheng-Li Shi
Nature (2020)
Published: 03 February 2020
doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7

Using the aligned genome sequences of 2019-nCoV, RaTG13, SARS-CoV and previously reported bat SARSr-CoVs, no evidence for recombination events was detected in the genome of 2019-nCoV. The close phylogenetic relationship to RaTG13 provides evidence for a bat origin of 2019-nCoV.

However, there are still many urgent questions to be answered. The association between the 2019-nCoV and the disease has not been proved by animal experiments to full the Koch postulates. We don’t know the transmission routine of this virus among hosts yet. It seems the virus is becoming more transmissible between human-to-human. We should closely monitor if the virus continue evolving to become more virulent. Owing to shortage of specific treatment and considering the relatedness between SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV, some drugs and pre-clinical vaccine against SARS-CoV probably can be applied to this virus. Finally, considering the wide spread of SARSr-CoV in their natural reservoirs, future research should be focused on active surveillance of these viruses through a broader geographic regions. In the long-term, broad-spectrum antiviral drugs and vaccine should be prepared for the future emerging infectious diseases caused by this cluster of virus. Most importantly, strict regulations against the wildlife domestication and consuming should be implemented.

PDF: www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7_reference.pdf

News article published in Science about this Corona Virus:
Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’s origins
By Jon Cohen | Jan. 31, 2020

attaaaggtt tataccttcc caggtaacaa accaaccaac tttcgatctc ttgtagatct …

That string of apparent gibberish is anything but: It’s a snippet of a DNA sequence from the viral pathogen, dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), that is overwhelming China and frightening the entire world. Scientists are publicly sharing an ever-growing number of full sequences of the virus from patients—53 at last count in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data database. These viral genomes are being intensely studied to try to understand the origin of 2019-nCoV and how it fits on the family tree of related viruses found in bats and other species.

“One of the biggest takeaway messages [from the viral sequences] is that there was a single introduction into humans and then human-to-human spread,” says Trevor Bedford, a bioinformatics specialist at the University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. The role of Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, in spreading 2019-nCoV remains murky, though such sequencing, combined with sampling the market’s environment for the presence of the virus, is clarifying that it indeed had an important early role in amplifying the outbreak. The viral sequences, most researchers say, also knock down the idea the pathogen came from a virology institute in Wuhan.

Bedford’s analyses of RaTG13 and 2019-nCoV suggest that the two viruses shared a common ancestor 25 to 65 years ago, an estimate he arrived at by combining the difference in nucleotides between the viruses with the presumed rates of mutation in other coronaviruses.

The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
10 Feb 2020 10:01 #41

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Replied by Pony Soldier on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

Well, I wasn't going to post this, but since CCN has now hit the approved source list according to HA,

www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wu...-toll-is-over-50000/

Exiled Chinese businessman Guo Wengui recently revealed leaks from Wuhan crematoriums. He claims based on the number of bodies their furnaces are burning, the death toll could be as high as 50,000.



www.ccn.com/coronavirus-death-smog-is-ch...-of-infected-bodies/

Rising sulfur dioxide levels in air around Wuhan suggests Chinese government could be burning thousands of bodies to contain coronavirus outbreak.


Again, I sincerely hope this is hype and not truth. If it's the latter, we're screwed and not because of some offhand comment by the Fed Chairman....
13 Feb 2020 08:14 #42

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Replied by homeagain on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

What you fail to realize is this......MANY factors are converging at the same time....all with
different ramifications. The end result does NOT bode well for "MAGA". But,isn't that what I have
stated from the VERY beginning? That future events will impact the "perfect picture".
13 Feb 2020 09:10 #43

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Replied by ScienceChic on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

The recent reporting of numbers of new cases declining was likely due to China changing it's reporting criteria on new patients, just as this spike is due to another change in assessing and counting new cases.

Fortunately, it seems to have a mortality rate of ~1% (about the lethality of the flu), and I say fortunately with much regret as even a 1% mortality rate puts us at one estimate of 50 million dead by the time this runs it course.

The impact on the economy will not be pretty. We rely far too heavily on China for manufacturing (and that includes medical supplies and drugs needed to combat this, and other diseases).

US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic
Patricia Kime, Military Times | February 12, 2020

U.S. Northern Command is executing plans to prepare for a potential pandemic of the novel coronavirus, now called COVID19, according to Navy and Marine Corps service-wide messages issued this week.

An executive order issued by the Joint Staff and approved by Defense Secretary Mark Esper this month directed Northern Command and geographic combatant commanders to initiate pandemic plans, which include ordering commanders to prepare for widespread outbreaks and confining service members with a history of travel to China.

The Navy and Marine Corps messages, issued Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, reference an executive order directing U.S. Northern Command to implement the Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13.

The document serves as the Pentagon’s blueprint for planning and preparing for widespread dispersion of influenza and previously unknown diseases.


Way to go Russia...:smackshead:
Russians Escape Coronavirus Quarantine ‘Cages’
Three patients have fled clinics. It’s not clear if their actions were illegal.
By Pjotr Sauer, Moscow Times | Updated: 6 hours ago

The 32-year old housewife had been quarantined in St. Petersburg’s Botkinskaya clinic since she went for a check-up after returning from China’s Hainan seaside resort with a sore throat. She tested negative for the coronavirus three times, and decided to take matters into her own hands when doctors insisted she had to stay.

“I drew up a map before and made a detailed plan. When evening came and the medical staff had let their guard down, I short-circuited the magnetic lock in my containment room and opened the door. I studied physics, which helped,” Ilyina told The Moscow Times.

“Our Constitution guarantees freedom. I didn’t understand why I had to stay in a hospital cage,” she added.

Ilyina was one of thousands of Russians and Chinese who have been quarantined for the WHO-recommended 14-day period after showing symptoms of the coronavirus, which has killed over 1,000 people worldwide. Only two cases have been confirmed in Russia. Both patients were Chinese nationals and have since recovered.


Huge jump in coronavirus cases and deaths in China
CBS NEWS | FEBRUARY 13, 2020

Doctors in China have adopted a new way of diagnosing the novel coronavirus, leading to a huge jump in both the official number of deaths blamed on the disease and the tally of confirmed cases in the country at the heart of the outbreak. Officials in Hubei province, the Chinese region where the virus is believed to have jumped into the human population from wild animals, reported 254 new deaths and 15,152 new cases of the flu-like virus.

The increase brought the worldwide death toll to at least 1,369 and the number of confirmed cases to more than 60,000. Only about 400 of those patients, and just two of the confirmed fatalities, have been outside of mainland China. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed Thursday that there was a 15th case in the U.S.

The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
13 Feb 2020 09:44 #44

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Replied by Pony Soldier on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

Wouldn't the numbers in the CBS article make the lethality rate a bit over 2%? Confirmed cases - 60000, deaths - 1369? Or are they assuming unconfirmed cases double the infected number?
13 Feb 2020 10:25 #45

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Replied by ScienceChic on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

The lethality rate I saw, and mentioned, was based on previous numbers. It's going to keep fluctuating until we can get an accurate count from China as to how many have really been infected and died. The World Health Organization was finally given permission to send a team led by the renowned Dr Bruce Aylward, to China just 4 days ago (shameful on China's part to let this go so long). Hopefully we'll be hearing some accurate data soon.
The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
13 Feb 2020 11:21 #46

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Replied by Pony Soldier on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

Well, China did not want to crash their economy. The reality of just how bad this is very well could. It has already taken a huge toll. This could actually be almost more devastating than a nuke.
13 Feb 2020 12:41 #47

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Replied by FredHayek on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

And while developed countries should be able to handle CV pretty well, I have to worry about the ability of poor nations to deal with millions, or hundreds of millions of contaminated citizens.
#35
14 Feb 2020 09:11 #48

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Replied by homeagain on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

homeagain wrote: What you fail to realize is this......MANY factors are converging at the same time....all with
different ramifications.
The end result does NOT bode well for "MAGA". But,isn't that what I have
stated from the VERY beginning? That future events will impact the "perfect picture".



www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2...l-be-delayed/606508/

A MACRO view of future factors....UNKNOWN at this time...wait for it.

www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-vulne...ay-infect-2020-02-15

ANOTHER SOURCE.....suggesting the same scenario
Last edit: 16 Feb 2020 10:16 by homeagain.
16 Feb 2020 10:10 #49

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Replied by FredHayek on topic are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

Funny sidebar: China has very sophisticated face ID software they have been using against their citizens, temporarily negated since everyone is wearing facemasks right now.

And capitalism is remarkably adaptive. For those people who have face ID to unlock their phones, they have started offering masks with your own face on it.
#35
17 Feb 2020 09:40 #50

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