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Five Thirty Eight 2016 Election Forecast: Who will win the presidency?
09 Aug 2016 13:48 #1
by ScienceChic
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
Nate Silver, the guy who accurately predicted the outcomes of the past two presidential elections says it'll be Clinton, with an 87.7% chance of winning.
Who will win the presidency?
Who will win the presidency?
We’ve just launched FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 general election forecast, which projects how the 538 Electoral College votes could break down in the presidential election. The forecast will be continually updated through Election Day on Nov. 8. Here’s a bullet-point-style look at how it was built.
What’s new in the model since 2012?Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
- Not that much! It’s mostly the same model as the one we used to successfully forecast the 2008 and 2012 elections.
- There’s no special variable for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton. They’re treated the same as any other candidates would be with the same polling numbers.
- We built procedures to handle Libertarian Gary Johnson and other third-party candidates.
- We double-checked lots of assumptions and code.
- We’re now showing different versions of the model: the polls-only and polls-plus forecasts, and the now-cast (what would happen in an election held today).
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
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18 Oct 2016 18:40 #8
by ScienceChic
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
Replied by ScienceChic on topic Five Thirty Eight 2016 Election Forecast: Who will win the presidency?
After going down to about 75% or so, since the debate and the leaked tape, Clinton's gone back up to 87% chance of winning the election, with an 89.6% chance of winning CO's electoral votes. Only a 49.8% to 42.8% margin of popular vote, but she's got the electoral votes in a landslide, on top of more and more Republicans saying they won't vote for Trump, and several newspapers that have historically only endorsed Republican are endorsing her.
Though it's still a ways off, this election is looking like it's over. Oh, and the Senate race projection has tipped to going Democrat too (74.1% chance of Dems winning control). I'm not bothering to look at media polls because they need a tight race to ensure viewership and ratings.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Senate race: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-electi...ex_cid=2016-forecast
Though it's still a ways off, this election is looking like it's over. Oh, and the Senate race projection has tipped to going Democrat too (74.1% chance of Dems winning control). I'm not bothering to look at media polls because they need a tight race to ensure viewership and ratings.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Senate race: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-electi...ex_cid=2016-forecast
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
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19 Oct 2016 15:56 #9
by Something the Dog Said
If that holds, then the nation has a real chance to get back on course. With a Senate majority, it is likely the Democrats will put an end to the obstructionism by the GOP (does that really mean Grab Other's P***y?) and trigger the nuclear option to do away with the filibuster. That will enable Hillary to not only replace Scalia with a young progressive justice, but also likely that she will fill Ginsberg, Breyer and Kennedy's seats as well. Possibly even Thomas, as he is rumored to want to get out and make some coin. So there will be a progressive majority for the next 20 - 40 years.
The Republicans will likely be a mess for generations between the Freedom Caucus, the establishment Republicans, and the Trumpers. A possible majority for Democrats in the House is also trending as well, but not as likely.
Can't wait to see the responses.
"Remember to always be yourself. Unless you can be batman. Then always be batman." Unknown
Replied by Something the Dog Said on topic Five Thirty Eight 2016 Election Forecast: Who will win the presidency?
ScienceChic wrote: After going down to about 75% or so, since the debate and the leaked tape, Clinton's gone back up to 87% chance of winning the election, with an 89.6% chance of winning CO's electoral votes. Only a 49.8% to 42.8% margin of popular vote, but she's got the electoral votes in a landslide, on top of more and more Republicans saying they won't vote for Trump, and several newspapers that have historically only endorsed Republican are endorsing her.
Though it's still a ways off, this election is looking like it's over. Oh, and the Senate race projection has tipped to going Democrat too (74.1% chance of Dems winning control). I'm not bothering to look at media polls because they need a tight race to ensure viewership and ratings.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Senate race: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-electi...ex_cid=2016-forecast
If that holds, then the nation has a real chance to get back on course. With a Senate majority, it is likely the Democrats will put an end to the obstructionism by the GOP (does that really mean Grab Other's P***y?) and trigger the nuclear option to do away with the filibuster. That will enable Hillary to not only replace Scalia with a young progressive justice, but also likely that she will fill Ginsberg, Breyer and Kennedy's seats as well. Possibly even Thomas, as he is rumored to want to get out and make some coin. So there will be a progressive majority for the next 20 - 40 years.
The Republicans will likely be a mess for generations between the Freedom Caucus, the establishment Republicans, and the Trumpers. A possible majority for Democrats in the House is also trending as well, but not as likely.
Can't wait to see the responses.
"Remember to always be yourself. Unless you can be batman. Then always be batman." Unknown
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