Five Thirty Eight 2016 Election Forecast: Who will win the presidency?

The country would have faced a polarized nation no matter who won this one. Trump would have exacerbated that polarization more than Hillary will, but it will take a generation to get over the demons he has unleashed. If the Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate there is little doubt they will continue the same gridlock they created during the Obama administration. I agree, Ramage, overall a grim picture.

I must ask, short of the hold on Garland for the Supreme Court, what are the Obama agenda items that have been stopped by the Republican Congress?
I realized that congress prevented the insurance companies from being paid taxpayer funds if they didn't make their profit margins as Obama wanted. Are there any others?

hillfarmer wrote: The country would have faced a polarized nation no matter who won this one. Trump would have exacerbated that polarization more than Hillary will, but it will take a generation to get over the demons he has unleashed. If the Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate there is little doubt they will continue the same gridlock they created during the Obama administration. I agree, Ramage, overall a grim picture.

I'd be thrilled with 4 years of a Hillary Clinton administration getting nothing done. And Ramage is right, Obama got a lot done, but Americans are feeling that in their wallets and will really feel it after the election when their health insurance goes through the roof. I predict that if that lying and corrupt woman wins and fulfills her liberal promises of wealth redistribution and tightening the screws on revenue producers, our next recession will happen within 18 months. Feel free to quote me.

Time to update the Nat Silver prediction.

Interesting to see that Trump, the most despised presidential candidate in US history is still on pace to get more electoral votes than Mitt Romney. Is this mainly due to Hillary's own issues? Or Barack was better at getting people to vote for him?

Wow, I just saw that tweet from Nate dropping Hillary`s chances to 70%. I still think Hillary will win, but much more likely for the Senate to remain in Republican hands. Please save me! Way too many election ads right now!

How could the pollsters be so wrong? Trump supporters unwilling to publicly tell pollsters they support a misogynistic racist? Or maybe America was tired of being called racist and sexist for the last two terms?

During the run up to the election, the pollsters were NOT trying to gauge the opinion of the public, rather they were trying to shape a narrative that would discourage the Trump supporters and those who were leaning towards him. You only have to look at the "internals" of the polls, e.g. the sampling discrepancy between parties, to see where their biases lay.

I think the pollsters oversampled Democrats. And lefty voters stayed home rather than support lite Republican Hillary. Bernie Sanders begged and pleaded for Democrat voters to support Hillary but blacks and Latinos went to Donald in record numbers.