Five Thirty Eight 2016 Election Forecast: Who will win the presidency?

09 Nov 2016 17:31 #21 by ramage
So much for Nate Silver and his poll.

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10 Nov 2016 09:26 #22 by ScienceChic
He doesn't actually do a straight poll, he's got a proprietary modeling system built that aggregates all the polls and some other stuff. Regardless, he certainly was wrong for the first time ever. He was updating as the night went on on Twitter and calling it for Trump earlier than I was seeing others.

The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh

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15 Nov 2016 11:35 #23 by Rick

Something the Dog Said wrote: That will enable Hillary to not only replace Scalia with a young progressive justice, but also likely that she will fill Ginsberg, Breyer and Kennedy's seats as well. Possibly even Thomas, as he is rumored to want to get out and make some coin. So there will be a progressive majority for the next 20 - 40 years.

The Republicans will likely be a mess for generations between the Freedom Caucus, the establishment Republicans, and the Trumpers. A possible majority for Democrats in the House is also trending as well, but not as likely.

Can't wait to see the responses.

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16 Nov 2016 17:21 #24 by ramage
Regarding Nate Silver, it may be that Science Chick is showing her youth . "... he certainly was wrong for the first time ever." In that 538 has only done predictions in 2008, 2012, and now 2106, the concept of the first time ever loses its credibility. However, on the bright side he is batting 2 out of 3, very good for baseball which is his statistical background.

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20 Nov 2016 21:04 - 20 Nov 2016 21:11 #25 by Arlen
HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! as for the election.

Now, for the reaction of the Progressives since the election: Have you no shame? The liberals were wagging their heads at Trump for considering a contest of the results if there was a hint of fraud. But the liberals contest the results without even hinting at fraud. Shameful. They don't believe in our form of government. They are elite socialists. They believe that the masses are stupid. Just consider who opposed Trump: Democrats, all of the media, Republicans, the establishment. Wow! the average person must really, really, really be stupid! :hairfire: :woohoo:

But then again.......re-read this thread.

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20 Nov 2016 21:12 #26 by FredHayek
I obsess over polls so I am still shocked Trump won and so many pollsters got it wrong. Media and political parties paid a lot of money and they blew it.

#35

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20 Nov 2016 21:23 - 25 Nov 2016 16:49 #27 by Arlen
The polls were not even near correct and the pollsters knew it. They were using it as a club to beat the Trump supporters over the head and demoralize them. This is the way it happens every election cycle. The only time that the polls reflect any type of accuracy is about a week before the election.

A person would be an absolute fool to believe that pollsters are not paid tools of the liberal establishment. A person would also be a fool to believe the drivel that the main stream media feeds to the watching public. They have denied having a liberal bias for many years but this cycle they came out of hiding and blatantly proclaimed that they need to defeat Trump for the good of the nation. They will find it hard to deny bias in the future.

Shall we remain gullible fools? I hope not.
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21 Nov 2016 08:04 #28 by FredHayek
I don't go in for the poll conspiracy theories. Pollsters make a lot of money selling their services, getting it wrong time after time will lose you clients. And consider this, if you constantly tell America that Hillary is going to easily win this election, that might encourage many Democrat voters to just stay home. Millions of Obama voters, especially in the Rust Belt, either stayed home or voted for the Donald.

I do believe that many Trump voters were the silent majority. Their coworkers, the media, and family members told them Trump supporters were deplorable and racist. They just quietly said nothing and pulled the lever for the man. And they either didn't answer polls or lied about who they were supporting.

The polls and I were wrong about 3rd party support. I really expected the Greens and Libertarians to do much better this time. Gary Johnson got more votes than four years ago, but I was really hoping the Libertarians would crack 10% and Jill Stein to get 5%. The Greens didn't even get 1%.

#35

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21 Nov 2016 18:05 - 25 Nov 2016 16:51 #29 by Arlen
Dream on, Fred. Politics is operated by criminals and gangsters. It's just that they conduct a lot of PR and the public is gullible enough to buy it. The pollsters are in it for the money and they pander to those who pay for their services. Pollsters are bought and paid for. Believe it.
Everyone loves a winner and will turn out in droves to vote for a winner. Bogus polls INCREASE turnout. Bogus polls also discourage those voters who support a candidate who is presented as a lost cause.

The reason that the whole establishment world is against Trump is because he is NOT bought and paid for. The politicians' and establishment's game was going to be brought to a halt.

You have just seen history. Open your eyes and ears and see the real world that has just been exposed.

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25 Nov 2016 08:58 #30 by Rick

Arlen wrote: Dream on, Fred. Politics is operated by criminals and gangsters. It's just that they conduct a lot of PR and the public is gullible enough to buy it. The pollsters are in it for the money and they pander to those who pay for their services. Pollsters are bought and paid for. Believe it.
Everyone loves a winner and will turn out in droves to vote for a winner. Bogus polls INCREASE turnout. Bogus polls also discourage those voters who support a candidate who is presented as a lost cause.

The reason that the whole world is against Trump is because he is NOT bought and paid for. The politicians' and establishment's game was going to be brought to a halt.

You have just seen history. Open your eyes and ears and see the real world that has just been exposed.

:like:

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