Iowa Caucus Tonight: Predictions?

03 Feb 2020 13:32 #1 by FredHayek
I think Bernie Sanders will win and finish in the mid 20's. Biden will come in second in the low 20's. There are predictions than Any Knoblaucher will do better here than her national polling of 5% since she is from Minnesota, a state right next door. Maybe 8%? No guesses on the other candidates, can be tough in caucus states because it is mainly the diehard partisans trying to convince their neighbors how to vote.

Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.

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03 Feb 2020 15:20 #2 by Rick
I think you're probably pretty close Fred. I believe Warren will drop out soon because she's done... Pete probably takes 3rd.

It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies and nosers−out of unorthodoxy

George Orwell

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03 Feb 2020 17:45 #3 by ramage
In that I have no contacts in Iowa and my only information regarding the caucus is via the media, I would concur with your prediction. Sanders has that youth vote that propelled Obama to a win in the caucus.
The democrats appear to want to replay 1972, (nominating McGovern), come hell or high water. Biden is soiled goods but will probably come in second due to boots on the ground. Third place, who cares, unless you bet on someone to show.
On February 7th, the democrats will have a debate. Bloomberg will be in it, to the exclusion of, (as of this posting) Booker, Yang, Gabbard, and the others who dropped out because of their failure to meet the requirements. That the requirements were changed to accommodate Bloomberg, what does that tell you about the democrat party?

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03 Feb 2020 20:50 #4 by Rick

ramage wrote: In that I have no contacts in Iowa and my only information regarding the caucus is via the media, I would concur with your prediction. Sanders has that youth vote that propelled Obama to a win in the caucus.
The democrats appear to want to replay 1972, (nominating McGovern), come hell or high water. Biden is soiled goods but will probably come in second due to boots on the ground. Third place, who cares, unless you bet on someone to show.
On February 7th, the democrats will have a debate. Bloomberg will be in it, to the exclusion of, (as of this posting) Booker, Yang, Gabbard, and the others who dropped out because of their failure to meet the requirements. That the requirements were changed to accommodate Bloomberg, what does that tell you about the democrat party?

It tells me that Bloomberg is the "Break Glass in Case of Emergency" candidate because people on the left who have listened to Biden lately know he would get destroyed in every debate. I still think someone like Gabbard would be their best bet but these are the same people who thought phony impeachment was a good idea.

It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies and nosers−out of unorthodoxy

George Orwell

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04 Feb 2020 06:22 #5 by Pony Soldier
I predict that the Iowa Democrats won’t be able to run a fair election so they’ll throw a wrench in the results...

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04 Feb 2020 06:33 #6 by Rick

Captain Trips wrote: I predict that the Iowa Democrats won’t be able to run a fair election so they’ll throw a wrench in the results...

Iowa Democrats can’t perform simple math so Bernie must be the winner!! Lol I guess I should be surprised but I’m not.

It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies and nosers−out of unorthodoxy

George Orwell

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04 Feb 2020 06:58 #7 by homeagain

Rick wrote:

ramage wrote: In that I have no contacts in Iowa and my only information regarding the caucus is via the media, I would concur with your prediction. Sanders has that youth vote that propelled Obama to a win in the caucus.
The democrats appear to want to replay 1972, (nominating McGovern), come hell or high water. Biden is soiled goods but will probably come in second due to boots on the ground. Third place, who cares, unless you bet on someone to show.
On February 7th, the democrats will have a debate. Bloomberg will be in it, to the exclusion of, (as of this posting) Booker, Yang, Gabbard, and the others who dropped out because of their failure to meet the requirements. That the requirements were changed to accommodate Bloomberg, what does that tell you about the democrat party?

It tells me that Bloomberg is the "Break Glass in Case of Emergency" candidate because people on the left who have listened to Biden lately know he would get destroyed in every debate. I still think someone like Gabbard would be their best bet but these are the same people who thought phony impeachment was a good idea.



My bets on Bloomberg....because the current crowd just proved they are a bunch of clowns,
if the Caucasus is that fubared and a proactive stance from the officials was non existent...."we
have a problem Houston".....The Fourth Turning is operating now...Bloomberg is the proverbial
dark horse in this scenario......"upset,change the stats quo"...to repeat what I stated previously.

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04 Feb 2020 07:25 #8 by ScienceChic
As someone with firsthand knowledge of last night's caucus, I have to say that most of the reporting and discussion on what happened is completely indicative of what's wrong with this country.

First off, the Democrats can do simple math. In their infinite "wisdom", some brainiac at the Iowa Democratic Party decided creating and using a mobile app for reporting the results would be the way to go, totally disregarding the fact that the majority of people who participate at this level are older and less comfortable with new technology. The app didn't fail, people simply had trouble using it (training Fail) and tried calling in the results which jammed the phone lines. Our precinct chair was on hold for over an hour.

For the first time ever, rather than simply raising hands and noting who had the most, participants had to fill out a card with the name of their first choice, and then once the first alignment was done and the candidates who weren't viable (too few supporters) were figured out, we then wrote down our second choice. They were trying to gather all of that data at once, rather than just the final tallies. The important point to note here is that every person in the room had to sign in, there was a room count done after that which had to match the sign-in sheet number, and then everyone had to write down and sign a nominee card. There's a verifiable paper trail, which is more than we can say for how most of the rest of the nation is planning on conducting the election.

The people in this country need to stop with the urge for instant gratification. It's better to get it done right and take more time, than to be first and do it wrong (just look at TMZ reporting Kobe Bryant and fellow passengers' deaths before the police and Victim's Advocates even had time to contact the families - it's WRONG and needs to end).

As for our little precinct last night: Buttigieg and Klobuchar had just over double the supporters of Biden and Warren after the first alignment. Sanders (less than 10% of the particpants), Steyer, and Yang were behind them, and no one showed up for Gabbard, Bennett, or Bloomberg. We ended up with two delegates, one for Buttigieg (with almost half the room after re-alignment) and one for Klobuchar (with most of the rest). Friends at another larger precinct reported that they ended up with 11 delegates split unevenly among Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar.

We don't know yet who won the Iowa caucuses. But here's what we do know.
Des Moines Register, February 4, 2020

"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

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04 Feb 2020 07:38 #9 by homeagain
THANKS for that inside info...explains so much. I can get behind Buttiegig...But I think $$$$ is
going to be the driver.....BLOOMBERG is the only candidate that can OUTSPEND the king.jmo
The following user(s) said Thank You: ScienceChic

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04 Feb 2020 08:04 #10 by ramage
wsj.com 2/4/20

"The delay has temporarily deprived the winner of the burst of media attention and momentum that typically comes from success in Iowa. It also may have given any candidates who performed poorly a free pass."

The democrat apparatchiks are running scared of Sanders and are actively trying to stop him. They did it in 2016 in his run against Clinton, no reason to suspect that they aren't doing it again.

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