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End Of Quarantine?
07 Apr 2020 11:32 #21
by ScienceChic
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
Replied by ScienceChic on topic End Of Quarantine?
Trust me, as a small business owner, I'm acutely feeling the impact of this shutdown. Marketing is the first thing owners cut when times are tough, and I see my friends and fellow business owners struggling. It hurts my heart to contemplate that some of us won't make it through this, but when I consider the alternative of not aggressively doing social distancing right now, I feel we're doing the right thing that values both our lives and our economy. Yes, I've focused on the science side of it, but there is past history indicating that what we're doing (suppression and mitigation) is less damaging to the economy than if we keep everything open and let the virus spread rampantly.
This article below goes into quite a bit of analysis on that issue. It is frustrating because some of the graphs looking at the 1918 flu pandemic stop at 1919, and it would have been better to see what happened further out (if anyone finds that data, I'd love to see it, I haven't looked), but the "Roaring 20s" have quite the reputation for economic growth and prosperity.
Note: before reading this long paper, which is the 3rd in a series, I highly recommend reading the first two, Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now and Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance (with another note that his discussion of the mutation rate in the 2nd article is incorrect, as that USA Today article he cited misinterpreted the data). Also, skip over the first half of this 3rd paper where he's going over partisan death statistics, I don't get why he included it and found it distracts from the more pertinent economic info in the 2nd half. It has a ton of other sources linked, be sure to check those as well. Also note that this was published a week ago so his SARS-CoV2 stats are now out-of-date.
Coronavirus: Out of Many, One
What the US Federal Government and the States Should Do to Fight the Coronavirus
By Thomas Pueyo, Medium | April 1, 2020
This article below goes into quite a bit of analysis on that issue. It is frustrating because some of the graphs looking at the 1918 flu pandemic stop at 1919, and it would have been better to see what happened further out (if anyone finds that data, I'd love to see it, I haven't looked), but the "Roaring 20s" have quite the reputation for economic growth and prosperity.
Note: before reading this long paper, which is the 3rd in a series, I highly recommend reading the first two, Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now and Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance (with another note that his discussion of the mutation rate in the 2nd article is incorrect, as that USA Today article he cited misinterpreted the data). Also, skip over the first half of this 3rd paper where he's going over partisan death statistics, I don't get why he included it and found it distracts from the more pertinent economic info in the 2nd half. It has a ton of other sources linked, be sure to check those as well. Also note that this was published a week ago so his SARS-CoV2 stats are now out-of-date.
Coronavirus: Out of Many, One
What the US Federal Government and the States Should Do to Fight the Coronavirus
By Thomas Pueyo, Medium | April 1, 2020
Ok, let’s take a step back. Now we have some evidence that:
- 21st century pandemics have tended to have a short-term effect on the economy
- Quicker and longer social distancing measures probably benefit the economy
- A lockdown that can control an outbreak was enough to increase the confidence of investors to bring the Chinese stock market back to the levels before the lockdown.
Based on the little we know today, it looks like Suppression is economically better than Mitigation once you have an outbreak.
The Price of a Life
One of the core challenges lawmakers have when comparing Suppression and Mitigation is that tradeoffs between life and money are hard. The major benefit of Suppression, the lives saved, can’t be translated into money.
But it can.
The cost in deaths to the US would range between $750 billion and $15 trillion.
We do that all the time. In insurance, pharmacology or healthcare, for example, society has to decide how much a life is worth.
For context, that’s between 4% and 75% of GDP. The cost in lives would be staggering.
Let’s summarize all this information
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
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07 Apr 2020 13:39 #25
by ramage
Replied by ramage on topic End Of Quarantine?
Fred,
Have some faith (pardon the pun) The administration is trying to figure out how to get the economy back on track. I think that churches will lead the way out of this lock down.
Now, as to what approach to the virus works, the following is from powerlineblog.com 4/7/20:
A reader with a PhD in engineering and 35 years experience in advanced data analysis wrote to us regarding Sweden’s experience so far in dealing with the Wuhan coronavirus without locking down the country. He reports:
I did a quick look at the data coming out of Sweden with the data obtained from Worldometer, and have plotted the data on a per capita basis (positive cases vs 1M population) for Sweden and the US as well as an exponential fit to the data. The exponential fit was obtained by using β-µ=0.3 for both countries, where β and μ are the rates of infections and removals in the population, respectively. The quotient of β/μ is the contagion rate or R0 (R-naught) and the WHO is estimating R0 to be between 2.0 and 2.5 for this virus.
Two extremely interesting observations can be seen in the data. First, although Sweden had a higher initial case count on March 4 than the US, their positive cases are approximately 670 per 1M population on April 5th and now below the US per capita rate of 1020 per 1M population. Second, the early infection rate for both Sweden and the US are essentially identical. The dashed red lines in the plot, as noted above, are a fit to the data using an identical slope of 0.3. But then Sweden “breaks the curve” (i.e. changes the infection rate) without any extraordinary measures.
Something very interesting is going on with this virus. I’m sure some of the differences between Sweden and the US can be explained by overall population density, the number of large cities, number of people per household, etc. but the fact that Sweden has broken the curve without draconian measures should force a reexamination of our current models and lockdown strategy. Further, it is likely that Sweden will not experience a second wave of the virus since it appears that they can continue their current lifestyle without serious economic implications until a cure or vaccine is found, which is exactly what we need in the US.
Have some faith (pardon the pun) The administration is trying to figure out how to get the economy back on track. I think that churches will lead the way out of this lock down.
Now, as to what approach to the virus works, the following is from powerlineblog.com 4/7/20:
A reader with a PhD in engineering and 35 years experience in advanced data analysis wrote to us regarding Sweden’s experience so far in dealing with the Wuhan coronavirus without locking down the country. He reports:
I did a quick look at the data coming out of Sweden with the data obtained from Worldometer, and have plotted the data on a per capita basis (positive cases vs 1M population) for Sweden and the US as well as an exponential fit to the data. The exponential fit was obtained by using β-µ=0.3 for both countries, where β and μ are the rates of infections and removals in the population, respectively. The quotient of β/μ is the contagion rate or R0 (R-naught) and the WHO is estimating R0 to be between 2.0 and 2.5 for this virus.
Two extremely interesting observations can be seen in the data. First, although Sweden had a higher initial case count on March 4 than the US, their positive cases are approximately 670 per 1M population on April 5th and now below the US per capita rate of 1020 per 1M population. Second, the early infection rate for both Sweden and the US are essentially identical. The dashed red lines in the plot, as noted above, are a fit to the data using an identical slope of 0.3. But then Sweden “breaks the curve” (i.e. changes the infection rate) without any extraordinary measures.
Something very interesting is going on with this virus. I’m sure some of the differences between Sweden and the US can be explained by overall population density, the number of large cities, number of people per household, etc. but the fact that Sweden has broken the curve without draconian measures should force a reexamination of our current models and lockdown strategy. Further, it is likely that Sweden will not experience a second wave of the virus since it appears that they can continue their current lifestyle without serious economic implications until a cure or vaccine is found, which is exactly what we need in the US.
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07 Apr 2020 15:54 #28
by homeagain
Replied by homeagain on topic End Of Quarantine?
The ONLY think I truly believe is.....we are hosed and everyone knows it.....part of the "lesson"
of this fubar is making those CORRECTIONS in a timely fashion.....NOT going to happen with
the king creating chaos every hour of every day.....NUMBER of deaths will be his legacy.....
of this fubar is making those CORRECTIONS in a timely fashion.....NOT going to happen with
the king creating chaos every hour of every day.....NUMBER of deaths will be his legacy.....
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07 Apr 2020 16:19 #30
by homeagain
My bad...thought the reference was to THERANOS and CEO Eliz. Holmes....who was discovered to be a charlatan. Marvel characters,for the most part,are unknown to me...
Replied by homeagain on topic End Of Quarantine?
Pony Soldier wrote:
homeagain wrote:
Pony Soldier wrote:
homeagain wrote:
Pony Soldier wrote: Why go through self induced severe hardship?
ASK that of the Governors who are NOT following protocol, who open beaches AGAIN,who
allow churches to congregate AGAIN.....it just prolongs the "lesson"....the proverbial brick thru the window lesson.....IT HAS BEEN PROVEN TO PROHIBIT THE SPREAD....the lesson is sacrifice
now or seriously suffer later....it is a choice...from my fav book....
"There is no such thing as a problem without a gift for you in it's hand....you seek problems because you need their gifts".....
In this case, jmo, the gift is a BETTER WORLD....for all of us.....eventually.
Ah yes, the Thanos doctrine...
I'M SORRY. are u calling me a charlatan,someone who seeks out monetary gain with lies?
Uhm no... Perhaps you misunderstood my nerdieness. I was referring to Thanos from the Marvel series who wanted to improve everyone’s life across the galaxy by wiping out 1/2 of life.
My bad...thought the reference was to THERANOS and CEO Eliz. Holmes....who was discovered to be a charlatan. Marvel characters,for the most part,are unknown to me...
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