homeagain wrote: The ONLY think I truly believe is.....we are hosed and everyone knows it.....part of the "lesson"
of this fubar is making those CORRECTIONS in a timely fashion.....NOT going to happen with
the king creating chaos every hour of every day.....NUMBER of deaths will be his legacy.....
What would you consider a victory? Only 90,000 deaths out of 350 million Americans? Or would you say as long as there are 13,000 deaths, Trump's administration failed.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
homeagain wrote: The ONLY think I truly believe is.....we are hosed and everyone knows it.....part of the "lesson"
of this fubar is making those CORRECTIONS in a timely fashion.....NOT going to happen with
the king creating chaos every hour of every day.....NUMBER of deaths will be his legacy.....
What would you consider a victory? Only 90,000 deaths out of 350 million Americans? Or would you say as long as there are 13,000 deaths, Trump's administration failed.[/quote
HERE'S the problem.,he will open the spigot too soon,because he wants the throne again,and
in his mind, THAT is the economy and NOTHING but the economy...so screw the safety measure that will keep us from a dire future. When it is ALL tally up and the numbers across the nation are finally posted...the DEATHS will be his legacy, it is yet to unfold.....watch what happens.
This is a win-win situation for the modelers. Started with 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. now down to 60K. they will say it is because of the preventive measures taken. Does anyone seriously think that the U.S. would do nothing. So many variables so little data into their model.
Let's model this. 50K die in auto accidents each year, the model suggests that if no one drove automobiles then there would be no deaths from automobile accidents. But we accept the potential of death every time we drive. You take precautions when driving so did the 50K who died. Are you willing to walk down 285 to do your business? That is the trade off.
The early models showing million of deaths were based on doing nothing. Later models factored in the precautions but were way off. It's rather hard to take these guys seriously when they make such a habit of giving bad information.
Oh for Pete's sake, the point of a model isn't to give you an exact prediction of what's going to happen and to see if they "got it right" at the end to "prove their worth." It's a tool to proactively help guide decision-making. It's supposed to provide a comparison of what would happen if a set of actions were taken compared to another set of actions. They postulated that if no measures were taken to suppress and mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, approximately 2 million Americans would die; if measures were put into place such as closing nonessential businesses, events/gatherings, and stay at home orders, then that could be lowered to tens or hundreds of thousands depending upon the timing of implementation of said measures. Obviously actions were taken so the worst case scenario won't happen, and that's a good thing.
If there were no projections made, how could our leaders and representatives have any idea as to what the best course of action could be?
PonySoldier, you asked why I didn't address the economic side of the matter. I did,
and am curious as to what your thoughts are on the data?
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
ScienceChic wrote: Oh for Pete's sake, the point of a model isn't to give you an exact prediction of what's going to happen and to see if they "got it right" at the end to "prove their worth." It's a tool to proactively help guide decision-making. It's supposed to provide a comparison of what would happen if a set of actions were taken compared to another set of actions. They postulated that if no measures were taken to suppress and mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, approximately 2 million Americans would die; if measures were put into place such as closing nonessential businesses, events/gatherings, and stay at home orders, then that could be lowered to tens or hundreds of thousands depending upon the timing of implementation of said measures. Obviously actions were taken so the worst case scenario won't happen, and that's a good thing.
If there were no projections made, how could our leaders and representatives have any idea as to what the best course of action could be?
PonySoldier, you asked why I didn't address the economic side of the matter. I did,
and am curious as to what your thoughts are on the data?
I think your links are off by many orders of magnitude and that the projections of economic impact of deaths are greatly exaggerated so the conclusions are faulty. I know for a fact that we have put our country into a very deep recession and most likely a depression that will make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park. We did this based on those models that you say weren't meant to be accurate, just tools. I think that if we continue to listen to scientist, there will be NOTHING LEFT!
As I understand it....there are THREE separate modeling charts,by three different expert sources.
1. NO soc distancing or actions taken....numbers of cases/deaths/
2 SOME necessary actions that prohibit the progress of the virus....number of cases/deaths
3. EXTREME measures that are draconian....number cases/.deaths
I think the gurus are doing No. 2......BUT, the king is wanting no.1......thus a RE OCCURRENCE is
highly likely and WE ARE NOT TESTING ENOUGH or have a vaccine in place to open the spigot.
I do NOT believe the king has an adequate or acceptable plan to ease into this.....he wants his
BIG BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY TO OPEN WITH A BANG....let us see who can keep the king in
check so we all don't face a catastrophic future.
ScienceChic wrote: Oh for Pete's sake, the point of a model isn't to give you an exact prediction of what's going to happen and to see if they "got it right" at the end to "prove their worth." It's a tool to proactively help guide decision-making. It's supposed to provide a comparison of what would happen if a set of actions were taken compared to another set of actions. They postulated that if no measures were taken to suppress and mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, approximately 2 million Americans would die; if measures were put into place such as closing nonessential businesses, events/gatherings, and stay at home orders, then that could be lowered to tens or hundreds of thousands depending upon the timing of implementation of said measures. Obviously actions were taken so the worst case scenario won't happen, and that's a good thing.
If there were no projections made, how could our leaders and representatives have any idea as to what the best course of action could be?
PonySoldier, you asked why I didn't address the economic side of the matter. I did,
and am curious as to what your thoughts are on the data?
I think your links are off by many orders of magnitude and that the projections of economic impact of deaths are greatly exaggerated so the conclusions are faulty. I know for a fact that we have put our country into a very deep recession and most likely a depression that will make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park. We did this based on those models that you say weren't meant to be accurate, just tools. I think that if we continue to listen to scientist, there will be NOTHING LEFT!
Disagree. I don't think this will be as bad as the Great Depression to recover from. (Hope I am right.) I think the recovery could actually go like post war booms. Pent up demand will increase sales. The big issue is when does it end? Some health people think it cannot end until a vaccine has gone through extensive testing and that could take 18 months. If we actually wait that long, the economic effects will be ruinous. I think we can get back to normal with more testing and following the easier rules like social distancing. Also curious what the antibody tests will do. Using plasma from the previously recovered could help many who are sick.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
