Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Replied by Reverend Revelant on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Yep. NASA and GISS said last year was the warmest on record. They put out a press release all about it. They said that there was a 0.02 (f) warming (that's 0.04 (c)). The press ran with it.

What they failed to include in the press release was there was a 0.01 chance of error. And they also forgot to include that they are only 38 percent sure that their surface temperature reading are accurate.

Absolutely a PR stunt. Not science. You don't release something with half the information missing. And this seems like a new tactic, measuring in the hundredths. When did they start that?

Yes. Climate changes. There is no denying that. The ice ages, the warming periods, the next ice age, they all show that. It's been happening long before we came along.

And SC. Speaking of not addressing something. I still haven't heard a reply from you about the East Anglica 300 page document from the programmer that said their data, their programs and their methodology was flawed.

I will be glad to forward you the document if you would like to read it. I don't think you have actually read it but update me if I'm wrong about that.
Waiting for Armageddon since 33 AD
Last edit: 20 Jan 2015 09:46 by Reverend Revelant.
19 Jan 2015 18:59 #31

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Replied by ramage on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

WUWT guest essayist Bob Tisdale says:

The overselling of calamities in environmental sciences has reached unseemly proportions…so much so in one field that in 2014 a team of marine researchers exposed the problems in a journal article. The paper is Duarte et al. (2014) Reconsidering Ocean Calamities. The abstract reads (my boldface):

The proliferation of a number of pressures affecting the ocean is leading to a growing concern that the state of the ocean is compromised, which is driving society into pessimism. Ocean calamities are disruptive changes to ocean ecosystems that have profound impacts and that are widespread or global in scope. However, scrutiny of ocean calamities to ensure that they can be confidently attributed to human drivers, operate at widespread or global scales, and cause severe disruptions of marine social-ecosystems shows that some of the problems fail to meet these requirements or that the evidence is equivocal. A number of biases internal and external to the scientific community contribute to perpetuating the perception of ocean calamities in the absence of robust evidence. An organized auditing of ocean calamities may deliver a more precise diagnosis of the status of the oceans, which may help to identify the most pressing problems that need be addressed to conserve a healthy ocean.

As Mr. Tisdale notes: These problems run rampant in climate science.

Then he has a screen capped New York Times headline and image. Since the image has a Getty imprint, I’ll let you look at the thing on Watt’s Up for yourself.

The post ends with this (I haven’t included his embedded links):

NYTimes Headline

A brand new example of attempted overselling of calamities is the article in The New York Times Ocean Life Faces Mass Extinction, Broad Study Says. The article is based on the McCauley et al (2015) paper Marine defaunation: Animal loss in the global ocean.

How can you resist a horror headline which includes a new term? New to me, anyway: marine defaunation. Is she any kin to Marine LePen? [Sorry…couldn’t resist. Now you know where I hang out, eh?]

The mindset for oversold calamities is what I’ve long termed “Henny-Penny-the-sky-is-falling” journalism. You don’t often get to see an epiphany for a tried-and-true Leftist but I had that pleasure once.
20 Jan 2015 06:34 #32

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Replied by ScienceChic on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

2015 May Just Be Hottest Year on Record
2015 will very likely beat 2014 as the warmest year
By Andrea Thompson and Climate Central | August 20, 2015

After 2014 was declared the warmest year on record, a Climate Central analysis showed that 13 of the 15 warmest years in the books have occurred since 2000 and that the odds of that happening randomly without the boost of global warming was 1 in 27 million.

Even during recent years when a La Niña (the cold water counterpart to El Niño) has been in place, the year turned out warmer than El Niño years of earlier decades.

Global carbon dioxide levels have risen from a preindustrial level of about 280 parts per million to nearly 400 ppm today. In recent years, CO2 levels—the primary greenhouse gas—have spent longer and longer above the 400 ppm benchmark. They stayed above this point for about six months this year, twice the three months of last year. It is expected that within a few years, they will be permanently above 400 ppm.

The continued rise of CO2 levels will raise the planet’s temperature by another 3°F to 9°F by the end of this century depending on when and if greenhouse gas emissions are curbed, scientists have calculated.


2015 Among the Most Damaging Year for Wildfires Ever Recorded
by Ashley Mungiguerra
Oct 16 2015

The year 2015 has been among the most devastating on record for wildfires in the United States, with more than 9 million acres burned so far this year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

The NIFC has been tracking wildfires since 1960. While the number of wildfires has actually gone down, the number of acres destroyed has been rising, which experts attribute to hotter, drier conditions that make the blazes harder to contain.


Why ‘Once-In-A-Lifetime’ Flooding Keeps Happening
Justin Worland @justinworland
Oct. 5, 2015

And eventually, we'll run out of money to continue to battle these climate-fueled environmental disasters...

The latest IPCC Report:
www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
18 Oct 2015 18:19 #33

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Replied by FNP on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

The problem with all this is captured in the thread title. Is it belief or is it science?

1. Is the earth warming ... absolutely. We are still warming from the Quaternary ice ages. The earth has been much warmer than today over the geologic time scale. It is reasonable to assume Earth will continue to warm based on geologic temperature studies that show a much higher average global temperature.

2. Does atmospheric CO2 correlate with earth's temperature over the geologic time scale ... not too well. Reasonably close correlation has been demonstrated for an infinitesimal period of geologic time using models and most of those models haven't been forecasting very well for the last decade when compared to actual temperature measurements.

3. Land air temperatures derived from surface measurements do not seem to correlate closely with temperatures derived from satellite and balloon radiosonde measurements. Which data set to trust ...

4. Most of the debate revolves around land air temperatures. The earth temperatures we need to be more concerned about in the long run are ocean temperatures. The specific heat of water is about 4 times that of air. 4000 Argo bouys do not come close to providing sufficient data to ascertain the temperature of 320 million cubic miles of ocean water and determine reliable oceanic temperature trends. We don't really know the earth's temperature until we have a good handle on the ocean's temperature.

5. The debate is absolutely politicized. There are huge amounts of money involved. Objective science always suffers as a result. Trust, truth, and objectivity are the first victims of politics and money. Once any scientist becomes an activist, they have traded their objectivity for belief.

6. Can we trust the news media for an objective presentation of the issues ... I don't think so.

7. Can we trust the objectivity of scientific presentations in a highly politicized environment that will involve the expenditure of a large percentage of global GDP and redistribution of global wealth ... maybe, but how do we determine if the presentations are politicized or objective assessments?

8. Most of the debate revolves around models and their forecasts, the quote from George Box applies ... "all models are wrong, but some are useful". How can any of the models be independently verified or validated?

9. How much of the warming that we are seeing was caused by man ... Should mankind spend a very large percentage of global GDP to mitigate atmospheric CO2 because we think that controlling CO2 will address global warming ... Do we really understand earth's complex chaotic climate system? At what level is a chaotic system predictable enough to justify a global program ... We are claiming we can forecast the trend of a chaotic system.

10. All I know at the moment is that the earth is actually getting warmer and that it will probably get warmer. What I believe is that the "we can fix it" part of the warming debate seems to include far too much politics and belief to be considered objective science.
19 Oct 2015 12:44 #34

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Replied by OmniScience on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Nice post, FNP, but you're wasting your time with SC. Regardless of the massive carbon trading profits, unknown climate variables, contradictory evidence, political motivations, and a litany of failed predictions many people have joined the AGW movement with the furor of religious zealots.

It is unfortunate that so much effort is being made to control CO2 emissions in countries like the U.S. while this is happening--->

news.yahoo.com/se-asia-fires-produce-mor...as-us-053642591.html

It is a shame that we aren't allocating more resources to real, solvable, measureable environmental issues. But, the AGW religion is so entrenched in politics and creating huge profits that it isn't going away anytime soon.
21 Oct 2015 09:37 #35

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Replied by ScienceChic on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

I take exception to that assumption Omniscience, it most definitely is not a waste of FNP's time with that thoughtful post. That's the point of forums, to express one's point of view and to have a debate with others - last I checked there are 2,952 members and almost double that in visitors to the site each month. Please, have a conversation about this topic, it's not all about me. I want to hear what others think and learn new things as I'm sure others do as well.

FNP, thank you for your post. I have some videos I have to finish processing so I can't reply myself just yet, but everyone is welcome to weigh in!
The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
21 Oct 2015 12:15 #36

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Replied by OmniScience on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Just for you, SC

I hope you will refrain from engaging in any Halloween traditions this year, because you of all people, should not be contributing to the destruction of our planet.

With the passing of Halloween, millions of pounds of pumpkins have turned from seasonal decorations to trash destined for landfills, adding to more than 254 million tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) produced in the United States every year.

At landfills, MSW decomposes and eventually turns into methane—a harmful greenhouse gas that plays a part in climate change, with more than 20 times the warming effect of carbon dioxide (CO2).




energy.gov/articles/turn-your-halloween-pumpkins-power
Last edit: 29 Oct 2015 10:45 by OmniScience.
29 Oct 2015 10:44 #37

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Replied by ScienceChic on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Hey, I compost my foodstuff so it can break down into nutrient-rich soil that I add back to the garden in my yard, but thanks, that's good info to know! I'm glad to see there is an effort by our Energy Department to work with industry to manufacture biofuels.

Many landfills are also now capturing that methane and using it to produce energy, so that's good. Methane is definitely a problem for the atmosphere since it is a more highly potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, which creates a very troubling positive feedback loop in that a warmer atmosphere also hastens the melting of the permafrost and warming of the oceans where there are tonnes of frozen methane that could be added catastrophically to the atmosphere making the situation even worse.

Thawing permafrost could have catastrophic consequences, scientists warn
Writer Adam Wernick
June 24, 2015


Methane is Really Bad. Our Methane Rules Need To Be Really Good.
David Babson
October 23, 2015
The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
Last edit: 29 Oct 2015 12:18 by ScienceChic.
29 Oct 2015 12:18 #38

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Replied by Rick on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Ah yes, but composting still creates methane and C02 depending on how much oxygen it gets. So you really cant get away from killing the planet. :twisted:
29 Oct 2015 20:23 #39

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Replied by Ashley on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Plus it draws the bears. :) Sorry off topic.
29 Oct 2015 21:16 #40

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