Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Replied by Blazer Bob on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

..." So, don’t sell your beachfront property just yet.

Beginning back in 1988, certain scientists have been predicting climate doom, some of which should already be evident. That was the year when James Hansen, then the head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, testified before Congress that the greenhouse effect was causing warming on Earth and that man was at least partially responsible for it.

“Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming,” Hansen told Congress. “It’s already happening now.”

Hansen and fellow scientist Michael Oppenheimer reported that if the buildup of carbon dioxide and methane continued at the current rate, the Earth would be between three and nine degrees Fahrenheit warmer by the years 2025-2050, and that sea levels would rise between one and four feet in the same time frame.

Now, of course it’s not 2025 yet, but that’s only seven years in the future, and unless Hansen and Oppenheimer predicted that the warming would happen all at once (they didn’t), their predictions don’t seem to panning out, as global temperature has risen only slightly more than 0.5° F in that time."...

www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/...-predictions-suspect
08 Jun 2019 11:22 #61

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Replied by homeagain on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Blazer Bob wrote: ..." So, don’t sell your beachfront property just yet.

Beginning back in 1988, certain scientists have been predicting climate doom, some of which should already be evident. That was the year when James Hansen, then the head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, testified before Congress that the greenhouse effect was causing warming on Earth and that man was at least partially responsible for it.

“Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming,” Hansen told Congress. “It’s already happening now.”

Hansen and fellow scientist Michael Oppenheimer reported that if the buildup of carbon dioxide and methane continued at the current rate, the Earth would be between three and nine degrees Fahrenheit warmer by the years 2025-2050, and that sea levels would rise between one and four feet in the same time frame.

Now, of course it’s not 2025 yet, but that’s only seven years in the future, and unless Hansen and Oppenheimer predicted that the warming would happen all at once (they didn’t), their predictions don’t seem to panning out, as global temperature has risen only slightly more than 0.5° F in that time."...

www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/...-predictions-suspect


MANY significant things could occur within that timeframe......volcanic eruptions on a grand scale,pole reversal (which is something that could occur gradually...as I believe is the case
presently....earthquakes so severe it alters the flow of rivers and displaces lakes, the earth is
a living being and just as YOUR body is affected by exterior events,so is Gaia. jmo
09 Jun 2019 10:11 #62

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Replied by ScienceChic on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Let's compare Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony (and subsequent publication, Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model, from which he based his testimony) projections regarding temperature. Unless it was in the Q&A portion of his testimony (which isn't published that I can find), there's nothing published that he said in Congress, nor in his paper, about sea level rise so I don't know where they're getting those figures from.

30 years after Hansen’s testimony
— gavin, realclimate.org | @ 21 June 2018
The first transient climate projections using GCMs are 30 years old this year, and they have stood up remarkably well.

What were the temperature trends predicted and what were the trends observed? The simulations were run in 1984 or so, and that seems a reasonable beginning date for a trend calculation through to the last full year available, 2017. The modeled changes were as follows:

Scenario A: 0.33±0.03ºC/decade (95% CI)
Scenario B: 0.28±0.03ºC/decade (95% CI)
Scenario C: 0.16±0.03ºC/decade (95% CI)

The observed changes 1984-2017 are 0.19±0.03ºC/decade (GISTEMP), or 0.21±0.03ºC/decade (Cowtan and Way), lying between Scenario B and C, and notably smaller than Scenario A. Compared to 10 years ago, the uncertainties on the trends have halved, and so the different scenarios are more clearly distinguished. By this measure it is clear that the scenarios bracketed the reality (as they were designed to), but did not match it exactly. Can we say more by looking at the details of what was in the scenarios more specifically? Yes, we can.


Judgment on Hansen's '88 climate testimony: 'He was right'
Climate scientists' consensus: James Hansen 'got it right' in congressional global warming and human causation testimony 30 years ago this week.
By Peter Sinclair | Wednesday, June 20, 2018


What do we learn from James Hansen's 1988 prediction?
Skeptical Science

30 years later, deniers are still lying about Hansen’s amazing global warming prediction
Dana Nuccitelli, The Guardian | Mon 25 Jun 2018

Thirty years ago, James Hansen testified to Congress about the dangers of human-caused climate change. In his testimony, Hansen showed the results of his 1988 study using a climate model to project future global warming under three possible scenarios, ranging from ‘business as usual’ heavy pollution in his Scenario A to ‘draconian emissions cuts’ in Scenario C, with a moderate Scenario B in between.

Changes in the human effects that influence Earth’s global energy imbalance (a.k.a. ‘anthropogenic radiative forcings’) have in reality been closest to Hansen’s Scenario B, but about 20–30% weaker thanks to the success of the Montreal Protocol in phasing out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Hansen’s climate model projected that under Scenario B, global surface air temperatures would warm about 0.84°C between 1988 and 2017. But with a global energy imbalance 20–30% lower, it would have predicted a global surface warming closer to 0.6–0.7°C by this year.

The actual 1988–2017 temperature increase was about 0.6°C. Hansen’s 1988 global climate model was almost spot-on.

The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
09 Jun 2019 17:41 #63
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Replied by ramage on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

"unless it was in the Q&A portion of his testimony (which isn't published that I can find), there's nothing published that he said in Congress, nor in his paper, about sea level rise so I don't know where they're getting those figures from.

SC,
Simply do an internet search "Hansen sea levels rising". You will see what he said whether it be before Congress or in his paper.

BTW, How do you like that 437% snowpack overall in Colorado?
09 Jun 2019 20:35 #64

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Replied by ScienceChic on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

That's the thing ramage, I have. I found a couple of stories that talk about it, one that was on a climate denier's site that upfront admitted that the author remembered the details of his conversation (not during the Congressional testimony but at another unspecified location and date) with Hansen incorrectly, at first claiming that Hansen said in 20 years X would happen, and then later realizing that he'd actually said 40 years from now so I consider that source a complete fraud. That leaves only one other article out of the multiple that I found about his testimony, and no original source of the complete testimony, to back up the claims that Hansen talked about sea level rise making that highly suspect. Plus, he didn't discuss it at all in his scientific paper (which I linked above and you are welcome to read for yourself, as I did), which also raises red flags that people are trying to make stuff up/pass off misinformation about his testimony.

Hansen published papers later that talk about sea level rise 50-150 years from publication date, not 30-40 years later, so I am highly skeptical (until I see a credible source of his full testimony) of that part of any article, especially one from a denier as BB posted.

What did you think of the evidence refuting the temperature claims?

As far as the snow pack, I am deeply appreciative of it for reducing our drought and fire danger. Did you know that extreme rain/snow fall amounts are also predicted to be caused by global warming? 437% above is quite a shocking amount, don't'cha think?
The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
Last edit: 10 Jun 2019 09:26 by ScienceChic. Reason: clarification that research paper was linked in previous post
10 Jun 2019 09:25 #65

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Replied by ramage on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Did you know that extreme rain/snow fall amounts are also predicted to be caused by global warming? 437% above is quite a shocking amount, don't'cha think?

Is there anything that is not predicted due to global warming? Perhaps the 2019 World Series winner?
10 Jun 2019 09:35 #66

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Replied by FNP on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

For those of you interested in the Hansen testimony, it can be found in the Congressional Record of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing on June 23, 1988. All 222 pages of it.

babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b5127807&view=1up&seq=1
10 Jun 2019 10:17 #67

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Replied by ScienceChic on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Thank you FNP, that is extremely helpful! I'll start reading through it.
The hope of a secure and livable world lies with disciplined nonconformists who are dedicated to justice, peace and brotherhood. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Your scars exist, but it’s your courage that defines you. ~Nalini Singh
10 Jun 2019 10:38 #68

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Replied by homeagain on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

FNP wrote: For those of you interested in the Hansen testimony, it can be found in the Congressional Record of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing on June 23, 1988. All 222 pages of it.

babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b5127807&view=1up&seq=1



COOL......thanks for the link
10 Jun 2019 12:21 #69

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Replied by ramage on topic Climate: Why I Believe, What It Would Take To Change My Mind

Let's cut to the chase:
1) Please define climate change.
2) If you believe in climate change please tell us what is the cause.
3) Please explain the ice age, the presence of dinosaurs in WY/CO as to how climate change impacted the dinosaurs.
4) Is climate change a positive or negative for the entire planet.
5) What is the climate that is desirable and should be thought of as a goal? Again consider the entire planet.
10 Jun 2019 15:07 #70

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