BP Oil Spill Updates

Joe wrote: VL you are 0-0 on Oil is "heavier" than water.

I explained that

pineinthegrass wrote:

Rockdoc Franz wrote: VL, if you had any clue about what you were talking about, I'd argue with you. For now all I was trying to do is have an itelligent discussion (BIG HINT) not someone insisting that they are right by being a broken record. Do you know what that is or even means?

BTW, I worked in the Gulf for Shell for no less than 6 years, so I'm a bit more of an expert on it than you may want to imagine much less acknowledge. I doubt you even know what "the mud pile" means. In fact, I wonder if you have even been to the Gulf of Mexico.

I do not own BP stock and even if I did, integrity is my God and it would not allow me to ignore solid data that pointed to well integrity problems. I'm more interested in taming this monster and providing insight to intelligent laymen rather than in promoting myself (hint). If you did a little more research you would know that the seep in question is close to another well that is shut in and likely either related to it or a natural seep in itself. The fact the well cap has held and there is a steady pressure build up albite slowly points to no well leakage problems. FYI Were there a rubpture somewhere or a new failure developed in Deep Horizon, then there would be a sudden pressure drop.

From here on, I propose to continue to disseminate insights from the oilfield sector without being sidetracked by banal inuendos.

Nice post Rockdoc.

I don't know anything about the technical aspects of oil drilling, so I keep out of most of the technical discussion.

I hope the cap works, but if it doesn't, it at least sounds like they are close to drilling a relief well which could be the final solution. Any reports on how soon this might happen?

I said September 4, Rockdoc didn't want to go on the record with a prediction.

Vice Lord wrote: I said September 4, Rockdoc didn't want to go on the record with a prediction.

September 4? I guess that was some other subject. Just curious, which one?

How about this prediction?

Vice Lord wrote: More thoughts: ..... As an amateur weatherman I know that hurricanes strengths are directly proportional to the temperatures of the water .... What's going to happen when the entire Gulf of Mexico turns into black top? I think we will be looking at temperature rises in the order of 25 to 50 degrees, and mega hurricanes this fall. This is particulary concerning for me because my parents own a luxury condo on Estero Island Florida, and it's being willed to me. I wonder if it will even be there next year.

Hey VL, I'll give ya $100 for the condo before it gets swamped!

Joe wrote: How about this prediction?

Vice Lord wrote: More thoughts: ..... As an amateur weatherman I know that hurricanes strengths are directly proportional to the temperatures of the water .... What's going to happen when the entire Gulf of Mexico turns into black top? I think we will be looking at temperature rises in the order of 25 to 50 degrees, and mega hurricanes this fall. This is particulary concerning for me because my parents own a luxury condo on Estero Island Florida, and it's being willed to me. I wonder if it will even be there next year.

Hey VL, I'll give ya $100 for the condo before it gets swamped!

My parents own it, but they are too old to travel so me and my brothers/sisters own it..It's at the Sanderac, 1 minute from golf, 15 minutes from the dog track.

So the water temperature (which affect hurricanes) is going to rise 50 degrees above normal? Thats like 120 degrees. You should call MIT, they are hiring professors.

Joe wrote: So the water temperature (which affect hurricanes) is going to rise 50 degrees above normal? Thats like 120 degrees. You should call MIT, they are hiring professors.

Since gulf water is already pretty warm, I guess you could fish for crabs and lobsters and they'd already be cooked!

Vice Lord wrote:

pineinthegrass wrote:

Rockdoc Franz wrote: VL, if you had any clue about what you were talking about, I'd argue with you. For now all I was trying to do is have an itelligent discussion (BIG HINT) not someone insisting that they are right by being a broken record. Do you know what that is or even means?

BTW, I worked in the Gulf for Shell for no less than 6 years, so I'm a bit more of an expert on it than you may want to imagine much less acknowledge. I doubt you even know what "the mud pile" means. In fact, I wonder if you have even been to the Gulf of Mexico.

I do not own BP stock and even if I did, integrity is my God and it would not allow me to ignore solid data that pointed to well integrity problems. I'm more interested in taming this monster and providing insight to intelligent laymen rather than in promoting myself (hint). If you did a little more research you would know that the seep in question is close to another well that is shut in and likely either related to it or a natural seep in itself. The fact the well cap has held and there is a steady pressure build up albite slowly points to no well leakage problems. FYI Were there a rubpture somewhere or a new failure developed in Deep Horizon, then there would be a sudden pressure drop.

From here on, I propose to continue to disseminate insights from the oilfield sector without being sidetracked by banal inuendos.

Nice post Rockdoc.

I don't know anything about the technical aspects of oil drilling, so I keep out of most of the technical discussion.

I hope the cap works, but if it doesn't, it at least sounds like they are close to drilling a relief well which could be the final solution. Any reports on how soon this might happen?

I said September 4, Rockdoc didn't want to go on the record with a prediction.

The latest estimate from BP is they expect to intersect the blown well at the end of this month. If they manage to actually hit the well bore on the first try, then plugging the well begins imediately. Barring further delays, we can expect a "bottom kill" finished by the middle of next month, not Sept 4 (Wherever he pulled that number from?). Given that the cap has brought the well under control, there is now a real temptation to further "stem the tide" by hooking up pipe to the well head and forcing mud down the hole. Now that they can connect securely to the well head, the mud loss problem experienced previously no longer is an issue. Also, because of a secure connection, they can weight the mud and have a one mile column of mud weighing down on the oil pressure. This is why BP is eager to do it because the chance of success is very high. I also suspect they are a little concerned about hitting the hole with the relief well. To understand the technical challenge, you can think of trying to hit a 8 inch diameter hole from 3 miles away. I bet that would be hard to do with a powerful rifle armed with a lazer scope. To make matters even more challenging, drilling a well is like trying to use a cooked strand of spaghetti to drill a hole in a piece of wood. Most lay people have no idea of how difficult it is to drill an oil well. We tend to think of solid pipe as very ridgid, but when it is over 3 miles long, it no longer remians rigid.

The top kill therefore mitigates the urgency with the bottom kill project, but does not eliminate it. Now back to describing more core.

Rockdoc, you have to learn about VL's "predictions."

Once, under his Manna Pro nick, he "predicted" where a hurricane would hit the Florida coast. When it didn't hit near where he "predicted" he went back and changed his prediction and then bragged about how accurate he was.

It's his online shtick.

Wayne Harrison wrote: Rockdoc, you have to learn about VL's "predictions."

Once, under his Manna Pro nick, he "predicted" where a hurricane would hit the Florida coast. When it didn't hit near where he "predicted" he went back and changed his prediction and then bragged about how accurate he was.

It's his online shtick.

Thanks for the insight. Frankly, I could care less about his predictions. It's his misinformation that is troubling. However, having said that, I realize there is a VL BS alert everyone understands. My problem is I gave him too much attention by responding to absurd declarations. I've learned.