BP Oil Spill Updates

jf1acai wrote: I think this may help to explain why operational decisions are not necessarily driven by 'greed'.

Whatever decision, or decisions, led to this disaster, I do not believe they were driven by greed alone. They were made after a careful risk vs benefit analysis.

In this case, in hindsight, it is obvious that the risk was greater than expected.

At this point, I'm not sure at what point in the process that occured.

"Pobody is Nerfect" - and we have a LOT of learning left to do!

For sure. And hindsight is so clear to everyone now. lol

I've another question; Why is it that there is so much concern continued about the cap when

Pressure readings after 24 hours were about 6,700 pounds per square inch and rising slowly, Allen said, below the 7,500 psi that would clearly show the well was not leaking. He said pressure continued to rise between 2 and 10 psi per hour. A low pressure reading, or a falling one, could mean the oil is escaping.

?

This and seismic data seem to confirm no leaks. So why not resume drilling and plugging for good? The only thing I can imagine is that there is concen about hydrofracturing below the casing. However, the casing shoe (bottom of the casing) supposedly is set at a depth that will be able to contain reservoir pressures.

I simply do not have sufficient data to address this matter. What I am not totally surprised by is the slow rise in pressure. Frankly, the blown well flowwing uncontrolled did significant reservoir damage and it is going to take time for reservoir pressures to re-equilibrate.

Oh I fully expect it to spring some leaks in the coming days, this is stop gap at best.

DATE: July 17, 2010 15:52:13 CST
Statement by National Incident Commander Admiral Thad Allen On Well Integrity Test

WASHINGTON - The federal science team has been closely overseeing BP's well integrity test with the goal of first doing no harm to the well. Based on the data and pressure readings compiled to date, the test has provided us with valuable information which will inform the procedure to kill the well and a better understanding of options for temporary shut in during a hurricane.

As we continue to see success in the temporary halt of oil from the leak, the US government and BP have agreed to allow the well integrity test to continue another 24 hours.

The government has ordered additional monitoring of the area while the test continues which includes doubling the seismic mapping runs over the well site. A NOAA sonar ship has also been brought to the site to assist in monitoring the entire sea floor area around the well. The ship will make regular passes around the well looking for any hydrocarbon release subsea, and both acoustic and visual monitoring of the area with ROV's will continue. The pressure in the capping stack continues to increase very slowly and we want to continue to monitor this progress.

When this test is eventually stopped, we will immediately return to containment, using the new, tighter sealing cap with both the Helix Producer and the Q4000. Additional collection capacity of up to 80,000 barrels per day is also being added in the coming days.

Progress also continues on the two relief wells the federal government has required BP to drill. The relief well remains the ultimate step in stopping the BP oil leak for good.

Source

GIven the slow climb in pressure and the reduced flow rate observed prior to recapping, I do think there is a local depletion of and damage to the reservoir. That was a huge amount of oil produced in a short time and it speaks well of the reservoir that it flowed as violently and long as it did while wide open. The implications are the reservoir has excellent permeability, but even with such reservoir rock, getting oil to the well bore takes time. Its not like you turning on a fire hydrant connected to pipes. Instead it's more like you draining your water well and then having to wait for water to trickle back into it from the surrounding country rock. While the water filters into the well bore, water pressure is down as it is not at hydrostatic pressure. Water (or in the case of an oil reservoir, oil) fills the pores and helps support the overlying rock. This is true because water and oil are not very compressible. Take it out and the rock grains (mostly quartz in the reservoir) begin to crush at the points of contact. This reduces permeability (ability of fluid to flow through the rocks) permanently (hence reservoir damage). No oil company wants that to happen. This is why it is important to manage a reservoir to keep from damaging it. I expect we will not hear about reservoir damage since that is not good news to BP share holders. Instead that tidbit of information will get lost in news that the reservoir pressures are building slowly while the oil recharges the locally evacuated site.

I agree

DATE: July 18, 2010 11:37:44 CST
Statement by National Incident Commander Admiral Thad Allen On Well Integrity Test


WASHINGTON - Per my conversation with BP Executive Bob Dudley as recently as 11 a.m. EST today, nothing has changed about the joint agreement announced yesterday between BP and the US government. The ongoing well integrity test will continue until 4 p.m. EST today, with the potential for additional extensions in 24-hour increments. As a condition of the extension, the US government has required significant new monitoring and periodic evaluation and approval by our science team.

Work must continue to better understand the lower than expected pressure readings. This work centers on two plausible scenarios, depletion of oil from the reservoir and potential leakage caused by damage to the well bore or casing.

While we are pleased that no oil is currently being released into the Gulf of Mexico and want to take all appropriate action to keep it that way, it is important that all decisions are driven by the science. Ultimately, we must ensure no irreversible damage is done which could cause uncontrolled leakage from numerous points on the sea floor.

Source

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/07/18/gu ... er/?hpt=T1

The federal government's oil spill response director says testing has revealed that there is a "detected seep a distance from the well" and has ordered BP to quickly notify the government if other leaks are found.

Vice Lord wrote: Oh I fully expect it to spring some leaks in the coming days, this is stop gap at best.

Joe wrote: edition.cnn.com/2010/US/07/18/gulf.oil.disaster/?hpt=T1

The federal government's oil spill response director says testing has revealed that there is a "detected seep a distance from the well" and has ordered BP to quickly notify the government if other leaks are found.

Told ya

Vice Lord wrote: Posted: Mon May 31, 2010 10:32 am

Vice Lord wrote: I was just about to update this: The containment process is underway. It's never been tried before, but crews hope to lower a 1000-ton concrete-and-steel box a mile under the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday to cut off most of the millions of gallons of oil spewing from a blown-out well.

If it works, and I think it will to some degree the system could collect as much as 85 percent of the oil that's been spouting from the ocean floor. Hopefully, it will work better than they expect. I feel that it won't solve the problem altogether, it's what we in the business call a stop gap measure until the relief wells are fully operational- Those will take the pressure off the blown out well at the site, and I'm estimating that the wells can do that in or around september 5th depending on the type of sub strata they encounter..If they hit solid rock the relief wells may not be fully operational until October. Cross your fingers friends


I suggest they try to cap it- That process could concievably be achieved by mid July in my opinion.

Told you so

You don't talk that intelligently.

Vice Lord wrote:

Vice Lord wrote: Oh I fully expect it to spring some leaks in the coming days, this is stop gap at best.

Joe wrote: edition.cnn.com/2010/US/07/18/gulf.oil.disaster/?hpt=T1

The federal government's oil spill response director says testing has revealed that there is a "detected seep a distance from the well" and has ordered BP to quickly notify the government if other leaks are found.

Told ya

Dectecting a seep "some distance from the well" is not saying that that seep has a relationship to the well. There is a huge difference. So what can you tell us about the seep VL? I imagine you're doing research now or is this simply part of your vast training and expertise? Before I explain, I'd like to hear it from you given your told ya statement. Or is this another bettor's guess?