Local Foothills Weather Forecasts

No doubt about it. Unfortunately there isn't much change expected in the weather pattern until at least Wednesday. Some meteorologists (myself included) are pointing to high sea surface temperatures in the Gulf Of Alaska for the persistent high pressure that is affecting the Pacific Northwest.

@NASA
More than 100 fires burn in Washington state & no imminent relief is expected: go.nasa.gov/1U0eUVp #EarthRightNow

Hope we get some of the rain I know it is only a 30% chance but things are starting to get brown around here.

I look forward to the cooler day too.

We just got the latest El Nino/ENSO report from the CPC a few days ago. I've looked at this thoroughly and it does spell good news for Colorado, especially in the snowfall department.

CPC says that Colorado should be slightly above average for precipitation, and near-average for temperatures during October-November-December. Also, we should note that they predict El Nino conditions to persist into the Jan-Feb-March 2016 meteorological quarter.

Most recently, we are seeing some evidence of changing weather patterns, with some rain finally entering southern California, (09-15-15). There has also been precipitation across Arizona and New Mexico, indicating a wet southern Jet Stream. As we get into the colder months, the main Jet Stream will migrate south. We will have to watch the coupling of moisture from the eastern Pacific with the Jet. This usually determines storm tracks.

There is a lot still "up in the air" as far as just how much snowfall Colorado will receive... and where in the state we will get it. At this point, the analysis shows southwest Colorado has the best chance for above-average snowfall. However, several large upslope snowstorms could impact the eastern plains and Front Range Foothills, similar to 2003.

We are still in "wait and see" mode as the weather patterns change toward the Autumnal Equinox. Stay tuned...

Chief Meteorologist Steve Hamilton

Chief Meteorologist wrote: We just got the latest El Nino/ENSO report from the CPC a few days ago. I've looked at this thoroughly and it does spell good news for Colorado, especially in the snowfall department.

CPC says that Colorado should be slightly above average for precipitation, and near-average for temperatures during October-November-December. Also, we should note that they predict El Nino conditions to persist into the Jan-Feb-March 2016 meteorological quarter.

Most recently, we are seeing some evidence of changing weather patterns, with some rain finally entering southern California, (09-15-15). There has also been precipitation across Arizona and New Mexico, indicating a wet southern Jet Stream. As we get into the colder months, the main Jet Stream will migrate south. We will have to watch the coupling of moisture from the eastern Pacific with the Jet. This usually determines storm tracks.

There is a lot still "up in the air" as far as just how much snowfall Colorado will receive... and where in the state we will get it. At this point, the analysis shows southwest Colorado has the best chance for above-average snowfall. However, several large upslope snowstorms could impact the eastern plains and Front Range Foothills, similar to 2003.

We are still in "wait and see" mode as the weather patterns change toward the Autumnal Equinox. Stay tuned...

Chief Meteorologist Steve Hamilton

Thanks for the information freeze warnings would be good for the future we are at 8800 feet and the green house is on it's own tonight. No tomatoes left but many small squash that need a little more time. If they make it great but hey it is the mountains and we planted a little late.

Thanks

Wondering what our favorite Meteorologist is thinking about the weather coming in and if he has any new predictions?

Thanks

I'm using the NAM (North American Model) which is one of the medium-range forecast models. It is showing a low crossing in from AZ to NM and strengthening on Wednesday/Thursday. There is some moisture in the area to tap, so we will see rain for sure. As the wave moves through Wednesday, the rain begins. Then colder air enters the picture and we will likely see a rain/snow mix in the foothills. Not expecting any significant snow from this because of warm surfaces and quick melting, plus fairly warm surface temps. Anyway, it will definitely be getting chilly for Wednesday with precipitation lasting into Thursday. No snow for Denver or the plains as it is too warm.

So, we're looking at a decent precipitation event from late Tuesday, through Wednesday, wrapping up Thursday. Good time to put some winter weed & feed on your lawn (Tuesday). We will not have a big snow event, but we could see some flakes mixing in during the evening hours in the foothills, and possibly a brief change to all-snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday for higher elevations.

This is a forerunner of things to come. We're seeing more moisture and more systems coming in on the southern track. That's a sign of El Nino. The thing is, we may not see giant snowstorms (like March '03) until late Winter or early Spring. El Nino is so strong right now, it has a tendency to push things too far south to benefit us north of the Palmer Divide. It bears watching, of course, because there are other oscillations that affect storm tracks. I just don't want everyone panicking over monster snows. We don't have any evidence that we will be buried this Winter. I am expecting some decent snowfalls though, starting in November. Then a bit of a dry and cold January, followed by a nice wet and white Spring.

There it is at the moment! Please don't hesitate to reply with your take on this... the more brains, the better -Steve

So do you think it will be colder this winter or just average? My guess is that I have one more weekend of splitting wood unless we could be colder then we might want to do another cord of wood.

Hope you will be able to help out with expected snow totals this year as I live in Bailey 8800 feet but work in Evergreen and snow totals can be so different between the locations depending on how the storms come in.

It should be an OK weekend for wood-splitting. Not too cold. We're forecasting mid-40s for most of the foothill areas, so that should be all right. I've gotta do some of that myself, and stock up the garage.

As for the cold predictions, temperatures are supposed to be near-average for us. That in and of itself is very misleading. Colorado is a land-locked state with a "continental" climate, meaning we are not influenced by ocean temperatures, like LA or Seattle. So, if we get a week of -10 and a week of +30 degree days, it averages-out. I think we'll see plenty of wild swings between warm and cold spells with this strong of an El Nino. Fortunately, when we get a cold snap here, it doesn't usually last three weeks like it sometimes does in other climate zones.

We will likely see several multi-day spells of extremely cold temperatures in Denver. It's usually warmer in the foothills during such events due to elevation and cold air sinking. It would also not surprise me to see a few week-long "warm" events where we are in the 50s.

I'd bet on a winter full of surprises, with the big snows coming in Feb, Mar & April. I could be totally wrong on this, because for the last El Nino this strong (1997) we did not have the technology nor satellite data we have now. These days we can be much more accurate with storm tracks. So we will have to see how many are favorable for a big snow event north of the Palmer. I'll be keeping everyone up to date here, of course. We should know a few days out before we get slammed. -Steve