Pony Soldier wrote: Yes, it is a drop on the 14th as I said. The brackets currently encompass the 15th thru the 25th. This updates every day. Don’t worry, I’m sure scientists will be able to explain how they were wrong because Trump.
Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know “The numbers are grossly underreported. I know for a fact that we’ve had three deaths in one county where only one is listed on the website,” one California ER doctor told BuzzFeed News.
Nidhi Prakash & Ellie Hall BuzzFeed News | March 25, 2020
Medical professionals around the US told BuzzFeed News that the official numbers of people who have died of COVID-19 are not consistent with the number of deaths they’re seeing on the front lines.
In some cases, it’s a lag in reporting, caused by delays and possible breakdowns in logging positive tests and making them public. In other, more troubling, cases, medical experts told BuzzFeed News they think it’s because people are not being tested before or after they die.
In California, one ER doctor who works at multiple hospitals in a hard-hit county told BuzzFeed News, “those medical records aren't being audited by anyone at the state and local level currently and some people aren’t even testing those people who are dead.”
“We just don't know. The numbers are grossly underreported. I know for a fact that we’ve had three deaths in one county where only one is listed on the website,” the doctor said.
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
Well, now there's a reliable source.... I'll take CDC over buzzfeed any day. They are pretty well known to make it up as they go along SC, even you should know that. Here's a tip...if the sources are anonymous, they probably don't exist. BTW, I hear that if you say the word "gullible" very slowly, it will sound just like a flavor of ice cream...
Here is news that is really important when discussing the Wuhan virus.
The Duke and Duchess of Sussex — also known as Prince Harry and his Hollywood wife Meghan – have left Canada behind and moved permanently to California, UK media reports said Friday.
The Royal couple flew by private jet from Canada to Los Angeles last week before the border between the two countries closed because of the deadly Chinese coronavirus outbreak, the Sun newspaper reported from London.
ramage wrote: Here is news that is really important when discussing the Wuhan virus.
The Duke and Duchess of Sussex — also known as Prince Harry and his Hollywood wife Meghan – have left Canada behind and moved permanently to California, UK media reports said Friday.
The Royal couple flew by private jet from Canada to Los Angeles last week before the border between the two countries closed because of the deadly Chinese coronavirus outbreak, the Sun newspaper reported from London.
breitbart.com 3/27/20
THAT is because his wife is the $$$$MAKER, SHE IS DOING VOICE OVERS for the film industry....connections baby, REAL connections. Let's see how HE translates to not
being royalty..and has to operate in the real word.
Remember that study that had 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2,000,000 in the US due to CV? You know, the one that was used to shut down our country and crash our economy? The one by Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London. Well, they've updated it. Now, instead of 500,000 deaths in GB, he expects less that 20,000. (Average flu deaths in UK are 27,000). I wonder if the initial study was wrong because Trump.....
Ferguson warned that an uncontrolled spread of the virus could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain and up to 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. According to the New York Times, “it wasn’t so much the numbers themselves [that caused policymakers to act]. . .as who reported them: Imperial College London.”
Now, Ferguson and the Imperial College London have new numbers for Great Britain. According to this report, Ferguson says the number of deaths in Britain is unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower. And according to this source, more than half of those who die from the virus would likely have died by the end of the year in any case because they were so old and sick.
The average number of deaths from the flu in Britain each year is 17,000.
Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London is an epidemiologist.
Back on topic, do you mean this Neil Ferguson, who posted this 4 hours ago:
neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
4:52 PM · Mar 26, 2020
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
The world faces a severe and acute public health emergency due to the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic. How individual countries respond in the coming weeks will be critical in influencing the trajectory of national epidemics. Here we combine data on age-specific contact patterns and COVID-19 severity to project the health impact of the pandemic in 202 countries. We compare predicted mortality impacts in the absence of interventions or spontaneous social distancing with what might be achieved with policies aimed at mitigating or suppressing transmission. Our estimates of mortality and healthcare demand are based on data from China and high-income countries; differences in underlying health conditions and healthcare system capacity will likely result in different patterns in low income settings.
We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this year. Mitigation strategies focussing on shielding the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) and slowing but not interrupting transmission (40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) could reduce this burden by half, saving 20 million lives, but we predict that even in this scenario, health systems in all countries will be quickly overwhelmed. This effect is likely to be most severe in lower income settings where capacity is lowest: our mitigated scenarios lead to peak demand for critical care beds in a typical low-income setting outstripping supply by a factor of 25, in contrast to a typical high-income setting where this factor is 7. As a result, we anticipate that the true burden in low income settings pursuing mitigation strategies could be substantially higher than reflected in these estimates.
Our analysis therefore suggests that healthcare demand can only be kept within manageable levels through the rapid adoption of public health measures (including testing and isolation of cases and wider social distancing measures) to suppress transmission, similar to those being adopted in many countries at the current time. If a suppression strategy is implemented early (at 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population per week) and sustained, then 38.7 million lives could be saved whilst if it is initiated when death numbers are higher (1.6 deaths per 100,000 population per week) then 30.7 million lives could be saved. Delays in implementing strategies to suppress transmission will lead to worse outcomes and fewer lives saved.
We do not consider the wider social and economic costs of suppression, which will be high and may be disproportionately so in lower income settings. Moreover, suppression strategies will need to be maintained in some manner until vaccines or effective treatments become available to avoid the risk of later epidemics. Our analysis highlights the challenging decisions faced by all governments in the coming weeks and months, but demonstrates the extent to which rapid, decisive and collective action now could save millions of lives.
We open back up at Easter, we won't reach the 0.2 deaths per 100,000 scenario.
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
OBTW, I challenged my college age daughter and her friends on producing one single picture of an overflowing ER from anywhere in the US. They searched for hours on all of their social networks and nobody found one. Don’t you think that’s just a little bit strange in the age of instant media anywhere?
You have your expert I have mine.
Birx v. Ferguson
Dr. Birx's remarks in the 3/26 update:
I’m sure many of you saw the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that said there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They’ve adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000, half a million to 20,000. We are looking into this in great detail to understand that adjustment.
I’m going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who are asymptomatic, who never presented for any test in order to have the kind of numbers that were predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of asymptomatics. In no country to date have we seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are only measuring the tip of the iceberg of the symptomatic cases and underneath it are a large group of people. So we are working very hard to get the antibody test because that’s a good way to figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.
So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea, or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and you did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that.
…
Models are models. We are — there is enough data now of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20 percent of a population getting infected, it’s very scary, but we don’t have data that matches that based on the experience.
After addressing what she sees as those faulty models, she addressed the hysteria we’re seeing in the media and social media about overwhelmed hospitals and a lack of ventilators, specifically in New York City, which is dealing with the worst outbreak:
We are reassured in meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still ICU beds remaining and still significant — over 1,000 or 2,000 ventilators that have not been utilized.
breitbart.com 3/27
Personal observation of update 3/26/20
