Wait. So you both brought up Ferguson, not me, and when I shared Ferguson's own words clarifying the numbers because people were misinterpreting what he said, and I linked to the paper he and his colleagues published, you're telling me now that Ferguson's got it wrong?
That's attempted gaslighting at its finest. Congratulations.
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
ScienceChic wrote: Wait. So you both brought up Ferguson, not me, and when I shared Ferguson's own words clarifying the numbers because people were misinterpreting what he said, and I linked to the paper he and his colleagues published, you're telling me now that Ferguson's got it wrong?
That's attempted gaslighting at its finest. Congratulations.
LOTS of gaslighting going around.....from a great many posters.....
I mentioned the citation of Ferguson's "model" in which he modified his chicken-little prediction. As you pointed out he again re-modified his prediction.
Dr Birx's comments are there for all to see, Koobookie. As I referenced I personally heard her discussion of models. What is fake in the Breitbart column?
I choose to rely on Dr. Birx rather than Ferguson, you obviously prefer the inverse, SC, as is your perogative.
Last edit: 27 Mar 2020 13:33 by ramage. Reason: Typographical error
John BumgarnerSUBSCRIBER
2 hours ago
Coronavirus is turning me into a Democrat. It's got me staying home, not working, complaining about everything, and waiting on my government check.
I'm not "relying" on either one, I simply posted the information that corrected yours from the man whom your source mis-quoted.
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
My citation was issued prior to the re-modification by Ferguson. Nonetheless,
From your twitter citation:
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
You realize that that he is saying that the death assessment WITHOUT "those controls"....
Great Britain and the USA have instituted "those controls". So much for his model.
This modeling was what Dr. Birx was taking issue with in her presentation yesterday, 3/26.
Yes, I understand what he said, and I also read his paper I cited. It explains more in depth, making it clear that lifting stay at home orders too early, or not having them in place nationwide, as we currently do not have, means we will have deaths in the numbers likely somewhere between 0.2 and 1.6 per 100,000. This virus has been in the U.S. spreading unchecked from December to February, we aren't testing like we should be so we have no idea how many are actually infected, and until we do so we are flying blind making policy decisions based on incomplete data but an understanding of how quickly this can be transmitted and projections showing that our hospitals will be overrun shortly by the sheer number of cases in various places. Other modelers, and past epidemics, have shown that we will continue to have waves of infections for the next 2 years until we get a vaccine to prevent infections.
Do you think we shouldn't be taking this as seriously as we are until we see as many deaths as the flu? Should our local and state leaders not have implemented stay-at-home orders? At what point does this become a more important an issue than the flu?
Want to see what one infected person can do? Check this out: The Korean clusters How coronavirus cases exploded in South Korean churches and hospitals
UPDATED MARCH 20, 2020
The United States and South Korea detected their first cases on the same day.
But South Korea’s swift action stands in stark contrast to what has transpired in the United States. Seoul quickly authorized and increased additional tests, while U.S. officials got bogged down in the rules approving tests and initially recommended tests only when a person had recently been to a hot spot or had contact with someone known to be infected.
State by state, COVID-19 grinds U.S. to a halt The patchwork of statewide social-distancing measures that disrupted businesses, schools and daily life
By Ally J. Levine | PUBLISHED MARCH 24, 2020
In the course of two weeks, the United States came to a near standstill. With little direction from the federal government, state and local leaders began instituting their own restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus in their jurisdictions.
Despite a slow start, the states most affected by the coronavirus are taking new, severe measures. California, New York and Illinois, followed by other states, have instituted statewide “stay at home” orders.
Our president says in his press briefing that "we're close" on a vaccine. Dr. Fauci has repeated that it won't be less than 12 months and closer to 18 months. He also said "it's a germ, it's a flu, no one really knows what this is." Really? We know it's a Coronavirus. It's genome has been sequenced multiple times.
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
" lifting stay at home orders too early, or not having them in place nationwide, as we currently do not have, means we will have deaths in the numbers likely somewhere between 0.2 and 1.6 per 100,000."
Well, i simply disagree with you. I read your citations, I found that the modeling is predicated on nothing being done. Clearly not the case, do you concur? Has anyone lifted stay at home orders? No. As to deaths 2-16 per million is not a high price to pay.
To your other questions,
1. Do you think we shouldn't be taking this as seriously as we are until we see as many deaths as the flu?
No
2. Should our local and state leaders not have implemented stay-at-home orders?
No, promoting common sense measures would be more effective. Stay-at-home orders spread the virus, eg. New York City to Florida
3. At what point does this become a more important an issue than the flu?
It is apparent to anyone watching the news, interacting with others (>6 ft) that it is being taken more seriously than the flu.
After watching the MSM ask nonsensical questions eg "Can you guarantee that every patient that needs a ventilator will get one?" I self medicated. It is obvious that the MSM knows very little about production.
On a much more important note, no one addresses the number of respiratory therapist that are available. I would encourage all to read Mother Jones
www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/03/ven...piratory-therapists/
A brief snippet:
In the past days and weeks, health care experts have focused on a horrifying reality: the acute shortage of ventilators, a common medical device that is necessary to help patients with serious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, breathe. There are an estimated 160,000 ventilators in hospitals throughout the United States. (The numbers are not precise.) That is far from the amount that might be needed, and without ventilators people with the worst cases of COVID-19 will die.
Without an army of professionals to operate the ventilators, having enough machines does no good. Are there enough of them?
The media have been covering the ventilator deficit and efforts to increase production of the device. But there is a parallel story that has drawn less attention: the availability of the health care professionals who can insert and operate the ventilators. In most hospitals, the use of ventilators is managed by respiratory therapists who tend to work in intensive care units. These are specially trained clinicians who attend two- or four-year programs and who are licensed within their states. Without an army of professionals to operate the ventilators, having enough machines does no good.
Last edit: 27 Mar 2020 18:23 by MyMountainTown. Reason: Edited to remove excess quoting per Fair Use Guidelines
